【招银研究|宏观深度】悬崖之上：警惕日本主权债务风险

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the sustainability risks of Japan's public debt amid rising global interest rates and inflation, highlighting the potential for a "stagflation" scenario that could challenge Japan's fiscal stability and economic recovery [1][2][3]. Group 1: Public Debt and Economic Conditions - Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 228% by the end of 2024, a significant increase from 67% in 1990, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [4][8]. - The apparent decline in Japan's public debt ratio since 2020 is attributed to a combination of nominal economic growth driven by inflation and the Bank of Japan's low interest rate policy, rather than genuine fiscal improvement [11][12]. - The long-standing low inflation and low interest rate environment has allowed Japan to maintain high levels of public debt without immediate fiscal repercussions, but this situation may be changing as inflation rises [18][22]. Group 2: Inflation and Wage Dynamics - Japan is experiencing a shift from low inflation to rising prices, with the CPI surpassing 2% since April 2022, driven by both domestic and external factors, including a depreciating yen and supply chain issues [28][34]. - The aging population in Japan is contributing to upward pressure on wages, with expectations for salary increases becoming more entrenched, potentially leading to a wage-price spiral [2][34]. - The current inflation is primarily driven by essential goods, which may lead to increased demands for wage hikes among workers, further complicating the economic landscape [31][32]. Group 3: Future Risks and Market Implications - The potential for a "stagflation" scenario poses significant risks to Japan's public debt sustainability, as rising interest rates could outpace economic growth, leading to higher debt servicing costs [47][48]. - If the Bank of Japan tightens its monetary policy in response to inflation, it could exacerbate the fiscal pressures on the government, leading to a potential increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio [11][48]. - The article warns that Japan's reliance on long-term bonds and the central bank's significant holdings of government debt could lead to increased market volatility if interest rates rise unexpectedly [49][52].