国泰海通｜固收：“反内卷”：价格信号对债市影响几何

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "anti-involution" policy, emphasizing that price signals are not inherently established and that the transmission of demand needs to be observed in the context of the bond market [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current commodity market trend is likened to the stock market's "924" event, where the central government's rapid policy implementation has shifted expectations and led to a quick repricing of assets under ample liquidity [1]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to "restrict supply and stabilize prices," similar to the "steady housing market" approach in the real estate sector, viewing prices as crucial for guiding demand [1][2]. Group 2: Price as a Signal - The underlying logic of the "anti-involution" policy is to use price as a "starting signal" for economic recovery, akin to the "price increase to reduce inventory" strategy seen in the 2015-2016 real estate market [2]. - The effectiveness of price as a "starting signal" depends on actual demand, as historical data shows that price increases without demand support do not lead to economic momentum improvement [3]. Group 3: Tracking Policy Transmission - To monitor the transmission of the "anti-involution" policy, a weekly frequency tracking system based on high-frequency economic indicators has been established, covering production, demand, transportation, CPI, and PPI [4]. - Current data indicates that while the PPI factor is on an upward trend, the CPI and demand factors remain stable, suggesting that the transmission from upstream "anti-involution" policies to downstream prices and demand has not yet manifested [4].