【周观点】7月第3周乘用车环比+7.2%，继续看好汽车板块

Key Points - The core viewpoint emphasizes a strong outlook on the automotive sector, focusing on three main lines: dividends, AI intelligence, and robotics [5][11] - The automotive market showed mixed performance, with commercial trucks leading the gains, while passenger vehicles and parts showed modest increases [10][11] - Tesla's Q2 2025 results met expectations, with total revenue of $22.496 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.3% [4][10] - The pre-sale of the Wuling M8 electric version exceeded 10,000 units within 8 hours, indicating strong market interest [4][11] - The release of the Leapmotor B01 at a price range of $8.98 to $11.98 million marks a significant addition to the market [4][11] - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation for the healthy development of the automotive industry [6][11] Market Performance - In the third week of July, the total number of compulsory insurance policies reached 388,000 vehicles, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.2% but a month-on-month decrease of 29.1% [10][53] - The performance of segmented automotive sectors ranked as follows: SW commercial trucks (+6.4%), SW motorcycles and others (+1.4%), SW passenger cars (+1.3%), SW automotive (+1.0%), SW auto parts (+0.4%), and SW commercial passenger vehicles (-0.5%) [10][21] - The top five stocks covered this week included NIO-SW, Jianghuai Automobile, Mingyang Technology, Yinlun Co., and Chufeng Power, all showing significant gains [10][28] Research Outcomes - The team released in-depth reports on "Who is Paying for Intelligence" and a monthly report on buses for July, along with commentary on the semi-annual reports of Ruihu Mould and Feilong Co. [3][10] Industry Changes - The report indicates a projected increase in domestic retail sales of passenger vehicles to 23.69 million units in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [54][55] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 60.6% by 2025, with significant growth in both domestic and export markets [55][63] - The heavy truck segment is anticipated to see a 24.9% increase in domestic insurance volume in 2025, supported by domestic demand and policy incentives [59][63]