【笔记20250728— 商品在反内卷中 走完一年行情】

Core Viewpoint - The real risk faced by investors is the expectation gap between their predictions and market movements, which is highlighted by the phrase "risk is the difference between your expectations and market trends" [1] Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 4,958 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 3,251 billion yuan after 1,707 billion yuan matured [2] - The funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with funding rates continuing to decline; DR001 is around 1.46% and DR007 is around 1.58% [3] - The central bank's continued large net injections have led to a slight increase in the stock market, while commodities have seen significant declines and bond market rates have fluctuated downwards [4] Market Performance - The interbank funding rates have shown a downward trend, with R001 at 1.49% (down 6 basis points) and R007 at 1.63% (down 7 basis points), indicating a total transaction volume of 68,928.38 billion yuan [5] - The commodity market experienced a sharp decline, with various products hitting their daily limit down, while the bond market showed positive sentiment with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.715% [5] Social Policy Impact - The introduction of a child-rearing subsidy policy, providing 3,600 yuan per child per year, marks a significant breakthrough in social policy aimed at improving birth rates [6]