集装箱吞吐量反弹————每周经济观察第30期

Economic Outlook - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a mixed economic outlook, with some indicators showing improvement while others reflect weakness. The overall sentiment suggests a cautious optimism amid ongoing challenges in various sectors [2][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Domestic resource prices continue to rise significantly, with various indices showing increases: Shanxi thermal coal price up 1.7%, coking coal price up 16.7%, and rebar price up 5.5% [2][35]. - The land premium rate has rebounded to 7.8% as of July 20, compared to 5.47% in June, indicating a recovery in the real estate market [2][11]. - Port container throughput has rebounded, with a week-on-week increase of 2.6% as of July 20, reflecting a slight recovery in trade activities [2][20]. Group 2: Weakness Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has continued to decline, reaching 5.84% as of July 20, down from 5.96% on July 13, indicating a slowdown in economic activity [3][7]. - The transaction volume of commercial housing remains weak, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.5% in the first 25 days of July, compared to a 17.6% decline in June [3][11]. - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt facilities has decreased to 28.8%, down 4% week-on-week, suggesting a slowdown in construction-related activities [3][16]. Group 3: Trade Dynamics - There has been a significant drop in the number of cargo container ships from China to the U.S., with a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% as of July 26 [3][21]. - The trade negotiations between the U.S. and other countries, including Japan and the Philippines, have resulted in reduced tariffs, which may impact trade flows [3][22][33]. - The overall export performance from South Korea has weakened, with a year-on-year decline of 2.2% in July, compared to an increase of 8.3% in June [3][19]. Group 4: Debt and Interest Rates - New special bond issuance has accelerated, reaching 2.78 trillion yuan as of July 25, which is 63% of the annual target, outperforming last year's 44% [4][39]. - Government bond yields have risen, with the 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields reported at 1.3490%, 1.5256%, and 1.6652%, respectively, reflecting an upward trend in interest rates [4][55]. Group 5: Price Trends - The overall commodity price index in China has increased by 2.7%, while international commodity prices have seen a decline of 1.3% [35][38]. - Agricultural product prices have shown mixed trends, with egg prices rising significantly by 6.8%, while vegetable prices increased by 1.1% [36][38]. - The domestic cement price index has decreased by 1.6%, indicating potential challenges in the construction sector [35][38].