Labubu爆火、泡泡玛特业绩大增，市场为何不买账？｜智氪

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in stock prices is a shift from "performance-driven" to "expectation-based" trading [3]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - On July 15, Pop Mart released a strong performance forecast, indicating that its revenue growth for the first half of 2025 is expected to exceed 200% year-on-year, with net profit growth potentially reaching 350%, resulting in revenue exceeding 13.6 billion yuan and net profit exceeding 4 billion yuan [4][5]. - Despite the impressive forecast, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 4% the day after the announcement, followed by a slight decline in subsequent trading days [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reaction - The market's lack of enthusiasm can be attributed to two main reasons: early investors taking profits and skepticism regarding the sustainability of Pop Mart's performance growth [7]. - The stock price behavior resembles that of the A-share market, where good news often leads to a sell-off, contrasting with the Hong Kong market's focus on actual performance [6][9]. Group 3: Valuation Analysis - Based on the forecasted net profit growth of 350%, Pop Mart's annual net profit could exceed 8 billion yuan, leading to a dynamic P/E ratio of approximately 40 times, which is above its historical average [8][9]. - Historical P/E ratios for Pop Mart have mostly been below 50 times, indicating that the current valuation is relatively high compared to past performance [8][9]. Group 4: Key Product Dependency - The significant performance increase is largely driven by the popularity of the Labubu IP, raising concerns about whether this growth can be sustained in the future [10][12]. - In 2024, Labubu's sales exceeded 3 billion yuan, accounting for over 23% of total revenue, and its contribution to revenue is expected to increase in 2025 [11][12]. Group 5: International Expansion - Pop Mart's international revenue growth is outpacing domestic growth, with projections indicating that overseas revenue may surpass domestic revenue by 2025 [15][16]. - The company plans to open 100 new stores overseas in 2025, focusing on North America and Europe, with current overseas store revenue significantly higher than domestic [24][25]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The market is currently cautious, awaiting further validation of Pop Mart's performance sustainability, particularly regarding its ability to maintain a 40%-50% compound profit growth rate [30][31]. - Despite short-term stock price pressures, the valuation is expected to remain stable, as the market acknowledges the company's current growth potential while questioning its long-term sustainability [30][31].