“大贬值”已经在路上了

Core Viewpoint - A systemic "devaluation" is sweeping the globe, with the Federal Reserve in Washington at its center, transforming from a stabilizer to an accelerator of this devaluation [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Context - The current devaluation is driven by persistent inflation, with the U.S. CPI reaching 2.7% in June 2025, and the core PCE index also at 2.7% in May [6]. - The U.S. national debt is projected to reach $50 trillion, with current debt surpassing $36 trillion, indicating a severe fiscal crisis [8]. - The federal deficit for the first six months of the 2025 fiscal year exceeded $1.3 trillion, averaging over $70 billion in new debt daily [9]. Group 2: Debt and Interest Dynamics - Interest payments on the national debt exceed $1.2 trillion annually, becoming the fastest-growing expenditure in the federal budget [9]. - By 2025, $9.2 trillion of national debt will mature, representing a quarter of the total debt, complicating refinancing efforts in a high-interest environment [10]. Group 3: Erosion of Trust - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat due to political pressures, particularly from former President Trump, which undermines market confidence [13][14]. - The global consensus on the dollar is fracturing, with countries increasingly opting for gold and alternative currencies, as evidenced by a significant increase in gold purchases by central banks [15][16]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Diversification is crucial; reliance solely on dollar assets is no longer viable, and attention should shift to undervalued assets in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [20]. - Scarcity should be the anchor for investments; gold and commodities like copper and oil are expected to retain value during inflationary periods [21]. - Stablecoins are not a reliable value anchor, as they are tied to the dollar's credibility, which is under threat [22].