Industrial Securities(SH:601377) 王涵论宏观·2025-07-29 05:48Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing restructuring of global supply chains post-2020, characterized by "localization," "nearshoring/regionalization," and "friendshoring," with a focus on recent marginal changes in these trends [1][5]. Group 1: Global FDI Trends - Since 2022, global Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) growth has been weak, with a 17% year-on-year decline in 2022, followed by modest increases of 5% in 2023 and 4% in 2024, indicating a persistent sluggish trend [7]. - The UNCTAD report highlights that the first quarter of 2025 will see historical lows in global transaction volumes and project announcements due to heightened policy uncertainty from a new round of tariff wars [7]. - The decline in FDI growth is primarily attributed to a significant contraction in merger and acquisition investments, which fell from $759.2 billion in 2021 to $387.1 billion in 2023, despite a projected 14% recovery in 2024 [7]. Group 2: Greenfield Investment Insights - Greenfield investments surged to a historical high of $1.4 trillion in 2023 but are expected to decline by 5% in 2024 while remaining at relatively high levels [7][11]. - The article notes a clear trend of greenfield investments shifting towards developed economies, particularly the U.S., which saw a 77% increase in greenfield investment in 2024, reaching its highest level since 2003 [14][11]. - In contrast, Western Europe experienced a decline in greenfield investments, with a 15% drop in 2023 and a further 1% decrease in 2024 [14]. Group 3: Regional and Sectoral Dynamics - The article identifies a regional differentiation in greenfield investments, with the U.S. accelerating while Western Europe and parts of Asia show signs of slowing down [11][12]. - In the Americas, greenfield investments remain robust, with North America experiencing a 59% increase and Latin America and the Caribbean seeing a 19% rise in 2024 [17]. - India continues to attract significant greenfield investments, averaging a growth rate of 110% since 2022, driven by its young labor force and independent geographical position [18]. Group 4: Industry Concentration - The restructuring of global supply chains has led to a concentration of investments in the electronics, energy, and resource sectors, with these industries collectively accounting for over 60% of greenfield investments from 2022 to 2024 [20][21]. - The demand for logistics and warehousing investments peaked in 2022, while energy and resource investments have shown mixed trends, with mining investments declining due to stabilized resource prices [21]. - Technological advancements are driving increased investments in the semiconductor and communication sectors, with a 73% rise in information and communication investments and a 140% increase in semiconductor investments in 2024 [22].