国泰海通｜育儿补贴落地，规模或达年均千亿

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the national childcare subsidy policy is expected to significantly boost demand in related industries, particularly in dairy products, with an estimated annual subsidy of around 100 billion yuan, which may have multiplier effects on consumption [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections National Childcare Subsidy Implementation - The national childcare subsidy plan was officially announced on July 28, with subsidies starting from January 1, 2025, for children under three years old, providing 3,600 yuan per child annually [1]. - The funding will come from a new transfer payment project established by the central government, with local governments responsible for any additional funding [1]. Key Aspects of the Subsidy - The policy emphasizes fairness, ensuring equal access to subsidies for eligible children [1]. - It aims to improve the efficiency of subsidy distribution, with clear channels for payment [1]. - The subsidy is exempt from personal income tax, which is expected to lower the cost of child-rearing [1]. Financial Implications - The estimated annual subsidy of around 100 billion yuan is substantial, especially when compared to the 2024 sales total of 510.5 billion yuan for large-scale dairy enterprises [2]. - The policy is expected to have a significant impact on various consumer sectors, with potential for additional local subsidies [2]. Demand Boost and Market Outlook - The national childcare subsidy is anticipated to increase consumption in the dairy sector, particularly in milk powder, thereby enhancing the industry's overall performance [3]. - The introduction of this subsidy, along with other related policies, is seen as a crucial step in addressing population decline and boosting market confidence [3].