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如果跌5%以上,你会怎么办?
雪球·2025-07-29 08:34

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent bull market in the A-share market, emphasizing the importance of understanding market trends and investor psychology during periods of volatility [4][10]. Market Performance - The recent bull market lasted from the end of 2018 to the end of 2021, with the Wande All A index experiencing a maximum increase of 87.14% and a maximum drawdown of -16.4% due to the pandemic [4]. - There were 11 instances of drawdowns exceeding 5%, with an average recovery time of 38 days, and missing these recoveries could result in an average loss of 41% in potential gains [7][8]. Investor Sentiment - Investors have become more sensitive to drawdowns due to the prolonged bear market over the past three years, which has been compounded by economic downturns and declining incomes [8]. - The article suggests that to benefit from a bull market, investors must be mentally prepared to accept drawdowns, as avoiding them could lead to missed opportunities for gains [8][10]. Market Outlook - The long-term outlook remains positive, with the belief that any short-term pullbacks are likely part of the ongoing bull market rather than the start of a new bear market [10]. - The market is currently in an upward trend, supported by a positive cycle of increasing investment and market confidence [11]. Valuation and Comparison - As of July 25, the Wande All A index had a price-to-book ratio of 1.7, which is within a reasonable range compared to historical data [13]. - A-shares are relatively undervalued compared to other global indices, indicating potential for growth [15]. Policy Support - Continuous policy support from regulatory bodies is expected to maintain market stability and growth [18]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has expressed commitment to consolidating the positive market trend [18]. Capital Flow - The market is experiencing ample liquidity, with significant potential for incremental capital inflow as household savings remain high and interest rates decline [19]. - Foreign institutional investors are currently underweight in A-shares, suggesting room for increased investment from abroad [19]. Conclusion - The article concludes that in a bull market, short-term trading can be risky, and investors should maintain a long-term perspective and not exit the market prematurely [20].