【招银研究|资本市场专题】去美元化：波动还是趋势

Core Viewpoint - The topic of de-dollarization has gained significant traction in the global financial market, particularly influenced by trade wars and U.S. fiscal sustainability risks. However, despite discussions, the fundamental position of the U.S. dollar remains strong in the international monetary system [1][4][6]. Group 1: De-dollarization Trends - De-dollarization has become a dominant narrative in global financial markets, especially after the U.S. implemented "reciprocal tariffs" and faced poor auction results for 20Y U.S. Treasuries, leading to significant outflows from U.S. equities, bonds, and dollar-denominated funds [1][6]. - The dollar's share in global reserves has been declining, from 73% in 2001 to 58% currently, indicating a trend towards diversification of reserve assets [10][13]. - Despite the decline in the dollar's share of reserves, it still holds a dominant position, with the euro and other currencies unable to effectively challenge its status [9][10]. Group 2: Payment and Settlement - The dollar maintains a dominant position in international payment systems, accounting for nearly 50% of transactions, with its share continuing to rise, contrary to de-dollarization narratives [15][16]. - The infrastructure supporting dollar transactions, such as SWIFT and Fedwire, reinforces its central role in global payments, creating a dependency that is difficult to disrupt [18][19]. Group 3: Investment and Financing - In the investment domain, the dollar's share in foreign exchange transactions remains stable at around 90%, indicating a strong reliance on the dollar for global asset allocation and risk management [22][25]. - The dollar also dominates international bond issuance, holding a 46% share, while its market share in trade financing remains between 80-90%, further solidifying its position [25][27]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The probability of substantial de-dollarization in the international monetary system is low, as there are currently no viable alternative currencies to challenge the dollar's dominance [28][29]. - Historical context shows that the transition of dominant currencies is a lengthy process, requiring significant shifts in political, economic, and military power [44][47]. - The narrative of de-dollarization may be more of a short-term fluctuation rather than a long-term trend, as the fundamental support for the dollar remains robust [49][50].