美银Hartnett警告：宽松政策、监管松绑与散户涌入下，全球股市正形成“更大泡沫”

Core Viewpoint - The market is being pushed towards a "larger bubble" characterized by increased retail participation, abundant liquidity, and heightened volatility due to the combined effects of the Trump administration's policy shift, global central bank easing, and financial deregulation [1][12][15] Group 1: Policy Shift and Debt Pressure - The Trump administration's focus has shifted from fiscal detoxification to aggressive spending, as it struggles to cut government expenditures amounting to $7.1 trillion [2] - Hartnett's analysis indicates that the federal funds rate must remain below 3% for the annual interest payments of approximately $1 trillion to stabilize, explaining the pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Divergence - Global bank stocks have surged, with European bank stocks rising by 62%, UK and Japanese banks by 37% and 24% respectively, while U.S. bank stocks increased by 17% [4] - Despite the strong performance of the S&P 500, there is a notable divergence between Wall Street and Main Street, as Trump's approval ratings have dropped close to their April lows [6] - Technology stocks, associated with billionaire investors, have risen by 71% since the election, while small-cap stocks, sensitive to interest rates, have declined by 1% this year [8] Group 3: Market Indicators and Signals - Although market sentiment is high, several indicators are approaching warning levels, with the "bull-bear indicator" rising from 6.3 to 6.4, the highest since the November 2024 elections, yet still below the 8.0 sell signal threshold [10] - Currently, only one of Bank of America's sell rules has been triggered, indicating that cash levels among fund managers are below 4%, while other key indicators have not yet reached sell signal levels [11] Group 4: Easing and Deregulation - The current asset bubble is being fueled by global easing policies and financial deregulation, with central banks like the Fed and the Bank of England having cut rates by 100 basis points in the past year [12][14] - The Trump administration plans to allow retail investors to include private equity in their 401(k) plans and is significantly reducing margin requirements for day trading, which could further increase retail participation [14][15] - The trading volume of "zero-day options" has surged, accounting for over 60% of the total options volume on the S&P 500 in the third quarter, contributing to the formation of an unprecedented market bubble driven by retail investors [15]