先声药业的估值

Core Viewpoint - The valuation of Xiansheng Pharmaceutical has significantly recovered due to the gradual rebound of the domestic innovative drug industry and the continuous realization of the company's innovative achievements, yet its market capitalization and price-to-sales ratio remain significantly lower than peers like Heng Rui Pharmaceutical and Innovent Biologics [1][16]. Valuation of Xiansheng Pharmaceutical - On July 29, Xiansheng Pharmaceutical's stock price surged over 9%, reaching a new high for the year, reflecting breakthroughs in its innovative drug business since 2025 [2]. - The company achieved a revenue of 6.635 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, with a net profit of approximately 733 million yuan, up 2.6% year-on-year, marking new highs since its listing [3][4]. - Despite a 104.46% increase in stock price year-to-date, it still lags behind the 111.5% increase of the Hong Kong innovative drug sector [3][6]. Transformation Challenges - Established in 1995, Xiansheng Pharmaceutical transitioned from a traditional generic drug company to an innovative drug company, facing inevitable growing pains during this structural transformation [6][8]. - The company has been actively shedding low-margin generic drug businesses while expanding its innovative drug pipeline through R&D and external collaborations [6][7]. - The company’s revenue growth has slowed significantly over the past five years, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.9% from 2020 to 2024 [6][7]. Innovative Achievements - Xiansheng Pharmaceutical has expanded its product line significantly, with 10 commercialized innovative drug products and over 60 in the R&D pipeline [12][17]. - The company’s revenue from innovative drugs has increased from 45.1% in 2020 to 74.3% in 2024, amounting to 4.928 billion yuan [6][12]. - The company’s main revenue sources are now concentrated in central nervous system products, autoimmune products, and oncology products, with notable growth in the neuroscience sector [13][18]. Valuation Recovery - The stock price of Xiansheng Pharmaceutical has increased by over 203% from its low of 4.7 HKD in 2024 to 14.28 HKD as of July 29, 2025 [16]. - Despite the recovery, the company's market capitalization of 35.3 billion HKD remains significantly lower than Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (542.9 billion HKD) and Innovent Biologics (170.9 billion HKD) [16][19]. - The company’s current price-to-sales ratio of 4.93 is far below Heng Rui Pharmaceutical's 17.13 and Innovent Biologics' 16.79, indicating market skepticism about its growth potential compared to peers [16][19]. Future Outlook - The market's valuation logic for innovative drug companies revolves around "certainty of growth," focusing on the ability to continuously launch innovative products and convert them into long-term commercial value [20]. - To gain further market recognition, Xiansheng Pharmaceutical needs to enhance its R&D capabilities and achieve more substantial performance growth [20].