热点思考 | 反内卷，破局的“妙招”有哪些？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core issue of "involution" stems from an imbalance in the manufacturing and service industries, with manufacturing employment exceeding actual demand while service employment remains insufficient [2][9] - In 2023, manufacturing employment was significantly above potential levels (+0.2 billion), while service employment showed a notable shortfall (-0.4 billion) [9][106] - Manufacturing investment remains high despite declining revenues, indicating an "involution" phenomenon, while service investment is approximately 1.5 trillion yuan below potential levels [18][106] Group 2 - There is a substantial gap in consumer spending, with a shortfall of about 6,400 billion yuan in goods consumption and nearly 30,000 billion yuan in service consumption [3][27] - In 2024, the per capita gap in service consumption is projected to be 2,093 yuan, highlighting a significant unmet demand in the service sector [27][106] Group 3 - Long-term solutions to "involution" involve shifting focus from manufacturing supply to service supply, as global experiences indicate a transition in consumer demand from goods to services at certain GDP and urbanization levels [4][107] - The aging population and smaller household sizes are expected to further drive demand for service consumption, particularly in areas like healthcare and leisure [45][52] Group 4 - Current policies are actively promoting service consumption, investment, and exports, which are seen as the new "three drivers" of economic growth [6][80] - Measures such as extending statutory holidays and encouraging private investment in the service sector are expected to enhance service demand and investment [91][109] - The recovery of inbound tourism is anticipated to significantly contribute to service exports, with potential growth in travel exports projected at 60.5% year-on-year for 2024 [97][109]