硬AI·2025-07-29 15:50Core Viewpoint - The competition for TSMC's CoWoS capacity has intensified as major tech companies vie for a share in the AI semiconductor market, with NVIDIA projected to dominate the demand by 2026 [2][3][14]. Group 1: CoWoS Demand and Market Dynamics - Global demand for CoWoS is expected to reach 1 million wafers by 2026, representing a growth of 40% to 50% in the cloud AI semiconductor market [2][11]. - NVIDIA is forecasted to consume 595,000 wafers, accounting for approximately 60% of the total demand, solidifying its market leadership [3][5]. - Other key players like AMD, Broadcom, and Amazon are also aggressively securing capacity, with AMD expected to acquire 105,000 wafers (11% market share) and Broadcom 150,000 wafers (15% market share) [4][6][7]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are increasing their capital expenditures, with Google raising its 2025 budget from $75 billion to $85 billion, indicating strong market growth signals [11][12]. - The monthly token processing volume on Google Cloud has surged from 480 trillion to 980 trillion, reflecting a doubling in demand [12]. Group 3: TSMC's Capacity Expansion - TSMC is ramping up its CoWoS capacity significantly, with projections indicating an increase from 32,000 wafers per month in 2024 to 93,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026 [14]. - AI-related revenue is expected to contribute 25% to TSMC's total revenue by 2025, positioning the company as a key beneficiary in the ongoing AI wave [14].