【国信金工】风险模型全攻略——恪守、衍进与实践

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing frequency of "black swan" events in the A-share market, leading to significant drawdowns in excess returns for public index-enhanced products in 2024, marking the largest historical drawdown [1][4][6] - The "black swan index" has shown a higher proportion of extreme events occurring in 2024 compared to previous years, indicating a substantial increase in the probability of extreme tail risks [1][10][14] Group 2 - The evolution of risk models has transitioned from single-factor to multi-factor approaches, and from explicit to implicit risks, reflecting a deeper understanding of market risks [18][19][21] - Implicit risks are defined as those that change with market conditions and are not fully captured by traditional explicit risk models, making them crucial for comprehensive risk management [46][52] Group 3 - A comprehensive risk control process is proposed, consisting of three stages: preemptive measures, in-process control, and post-event handling, aimed at effectively managing both explicit and implicit risks [60][63] - The introduction of a full-process risk control model has shown to significantly reduce drawdowns and volatility without adversely affecting long-term returns [3][61] Group 4 - The traditional multi-factor index-enhanced model has demonstrated an annualized excess return of 18.77% with a maximum drawdown of 9.68%, while the model incorporating full-process risk control has achieved an annualized excess return of 16.51% with a maximum drawdown of only 4.90% [3][5] - The performance metrics indicate that the full-process risk control model enhances the stability of excess returns while minimizing drawdowns and volatility [3][5][61]