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三重周期的呼唤:人在变老,钱在加速变老
虎嗅APP·2025-07-30 00:16

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of dividend investment, highlighting a significant shift in the Chinese economy from investment-driven to consumption-driven, which is reflected in the A-share market transitioning from a financing-dominated to a dividend-return-dominated market [4][9][23]. Economic Cycle - The article discusses the economic cycle, indicating that the gap between investment and consumption in China's GDP is narrowing, with a predicted crossover by 2024 [8]. - It notes that the A-share market has historically been criticized as a "money-grabbing market," but a turning point occurred in 2022 when dividends surpassed financing for the first time [9]. - The article argues that high-level financing has been a core theme in the A-share market for over 30 years, influencing market operations significantly [10][12]. Style Cycle - The article mentions that style cycles are often discussed in the A-share market, but quantifying these cycles is challenging due to the complexity of data [27][28]. - It draws parallels between international market trends and A-share market dynamics, suggesting that understanding these cycles is crucial for investment strategies [32][33]. Professional Cycle - The article asserts that the asset management industry is fundamentally a service industry, where matching funds with assets is key, rather than merely focusing on stock trading abilities [68][69]. - It highlights the demographic shifts in wealth distribution, particularly in the U.S., where older generations hold a significant portion of net assets, indicating a global trend of aging populations and wealth concentration [71].