是说芯语·2025-07-30 01:51Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is considering imposing tariffs on semiconductor imports, with results from a national security investigation expected in two weeks, potentially affecting major semiconductor manufacturers and designers [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Investigation and Implications - The U.S. Commerce Secretary announced that the investigation into semiconductor imports is based on the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, focusing on national security implications [1]. - Trump has indicated that tariffs could range from 25% to 100%, with a likely implementation window after mid-August [1][5]. - Major semiconductor companies and industry associations are urging caution, warning that broad tariffs could severely damage the U.S. semiconductor industry [1]. Group 2: International Trade Agreements - Trump stated that many companies will invest in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing to avoid the impact of new tariffs, while also highlighting a recent agreement with the EU for a 15% tariff rate [2][3]. - The agreement with the EU includes significant investments and purchases of U.S. military and energy products, with implications for the automotive and agricultural sectors [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The implementation of semiconductor tariffs is expected to have profound effects on global supply chains and the U.S. economy, with skepticism from industry experts regarding the effectiveness of the policy in bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. [4]. - An estimate from ITIF suggests that a 25% tariff could lead to a 0.18% decline in U.S. economic growth in the first year, accumulating to a GDP loss of $1.4 trillion over ten years [5].