从今天开始，全球市场将进入“超级72小时”

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significance of the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks and the critical economic data releases that could influence market trends in the near future [1][4]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Talks - U.S. and China held constructive discussions on economic relations and macroeconomic policies, reaffirming previous agreements [2][3]. - The talks resulted in a consensus to extend the suspension of certain tariffs for 90 days, which is seen as a positive development [3]. Group 2: Upcoming Economic Data - A series of important U.S. economic data releases, including Q2 GDP and non-farm payrolls, are expected to set the market tone for the remainder of the year [4][8]. - The Atlanta Fed predicts a Q2 GDP annualized growth rate of approximately 2.9%, primarily due to a decline in imports [8]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain the interest rate range at 4.25% to 4.5%, with market focus on potential divergences among policymakers regarding interest rate decisions [9]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - The upcoming "super week" is viewed as a significant test for Wall Street, especially after a substantial rebound in the stock market since April [5][6]. - The earnings reports from major tech companies like Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, which collectively have a market cap exceeding $11 trillion, are crucial for assessing market valuations [12][14]. - The S&P 500 index has risen by 8.3% this year, with a forward P/E ratio of 22, raising concerns about the sustainability of current valuations [14]. Group 4: Trade Policy Uncertainty - The deadline for implementing "reciprocal" tariffs by the Trump administration is approaching, with market sentiment having improved due to recent trade agreements [15]. - Despite the positive sentiment, uncertainties regarding tariffs and trade policies remain, as highlighted by market strategists [16]. Group 5: Focus on China’s Economic Policies - The upcoming Chinese Politburo meeting is expected to address economic conditions and potential policy measures to stabilize the real estate market and boost consumption [7][16]. - Analysts anticipate discussions on the real estate sector's recovery, anti-competitive practices, and fiscal and monetary policy directions [16].