美联储本月会降息吗？｜国际

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic conditions in the U.S. and the implications for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate decisions in light of inflation, employment, and trade agreements [2][3][10]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The probability of a rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is close to 0%, with a less than 60% chance for September, primarily due to stable employment and economic growth [2]. - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials indicate a cautious approach to potential rate cuts, emphasizing the need for clearer economic signals before making decisions [3][10]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has significantly decreased, which may influence the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [5]. Group 2: Trade Agreements and Tariffs - The U.S. has reached trade agreements with key partners, including Japan and the EU, which has reduced uncertainty regarding tariffs [5]. - Current tariff levels are higher than before Trump's second term, but U.S. companies are absorbing some of these costs to maintain market share, indicating a potential impact on inflation [5]. - The article suggests that once tariffs are established, their inflation effects will be largely one-time and manageable, reducing the uncertainty that could hinder rate cuts [5][6]. Group 3: Inflation Trends - Current inflation levels have not shown significant increases, with the June CPI data indicating a year-over-year increase of 2.5% and core PCE inflation at 2.7% [7]. - Research indicates that inflation, excluding tariff impacts, is nearing the Fed's 2% target, suggesting that inflation concerns may not be a barrier to rate cuts [7][8]. Group 4: Employment and Economic Growth - Employment data shows signs of weakness, with only 147,000 new jobs added in June, primarily from government sectors, while private sector job growth appears stagnant [9]. - The article highlights concerns about the high unemployment rate among recent graduates and the potential for increased layoffs if labor demand continues to decline [9]. - Despite stable consumer spending and growth in the service sector, sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as manufacturing and real estate, are experiencing contraction, indicating a need for potential rate cuts to stimulate growth [9].