Core Viewpoint - The land market is experiencing a seasonal decline in transaction volume, but the quality of land supply is improving, with more premium residential land expected to enter the market in the second half of 2025 due to urban renewal initiatives and optimized supply-side management [1][3][8]. Supply and Demand - As of July 25, 2025, the land supply area reached 61.81 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 17%, while the transaction area was 41.94 million square meters, also down 15% year-on-year [4][10]. - The average premium rate for land transactions in July was 9.9%, marking a new high since April 2025, with first-tier cities seeing a significant increase of 25.7% [5][15]. Market Heat - The average premium rate in July reached 9.9%, the highest since the second quarter of 2025, with first-tier cities experiencing a notable rise [5][15]. - In July, several high-quality residential land parcels were sold at over 20% premium rates, with cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen setting new price records [15][25]. Distribution - Transaction areas across different city tiers saw a year-on-year decline, with first-tier cities down 44%, second-tier cities down 27%, and third and fourth-tier cities down 11% [6]. - The transaction amount for first-tier cities increased by 24% year-on-year, while second-tier and third and fourth-tier cities saw declines of 14% and 1%, respectively [6]. Future Outlook - The central government has emphasized urban renewal and optimizing urban spatial structures, which is expected to lead to more high-quality land supply in the second half of 2025 [8][17]. - Core cities with significant population influx and higher economic development levels are anticipated to become key points for market recovery [8][17]. Key Land Parcels - In July, eight land parcels sold for over 50 million yuan per square meter, primarily in Shanghai and Shenzhen, indicating a rise in high-priced land transactions [23][24]. - The highest-priced land parcel was in Shanghai's Xuhui District, sold for 200,257 yuan per square meter, setting a national record [27][29].
土地月报|成交规模季节性回落,多地楼板价创新高、溢价率大幅回升(2025年7月)
克而瑞地产研究·2025-07-30 09:16