房地产企业今年集体赖账，最后谁来买单？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the severe debt crisis facing China's real estate sector, highlighting the significant amount of bad debt and the implications for the broader economy [1][4]. Group 1: Debt Restructuring - Many private real estate companies in China are undergoing debt restructuring, which is essentially a way to default on debts, with creditors often receiving only a fraction of what they are owed [1][2]. - For example, a company may offer four options for debt repayment, including cash, stock swaps, asset exchanges, and debt extensions, but the actual value received by creditors is significantly lower than the original debt [2]. Group 2: Scale of Debt - The total domestic debt of Chinese real estate companies is approximately 6.5 trillion yuan, with an additional 3.5 trillion yuan owed internationally, peaking in maturity this year and next [2]. - The banking sector is exposed to around 50 trillion yuan in loans to real estate, with conservative estimates suggesting banks could face losses of over 30% due to declining land values [2]. - Other liabilities include 15-20 trillion yuan in trust and wealth management products, and 5-8 trillion yuan in debts owed to suppliers, leading to an estimated 50 trillion yuan in bad debts from the real estate bubble [2]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The 50 trillion yuan in bad debts represents a significant financial burden, equating to ten years of land sale revenues or three times the annual tax revenue [2]. - The ultimate burden of these bad debts will likely be transferred to the general public, either through bank failures or inflation caused by central bank interventions [2][5]. Group 4: Historical Context - The article draws a parallel with Japan's real estate crisis in the 1990s, where the total real estate debt was 450-550 trillion yen, approximately 220% of GDP, and took over 20 years to resolve [4]. - The ongoing debt crisis in China's real estate sector suggests that the repercussions may last for many years, with the societal costs just beginning to surface [5].