水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 水落石出 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日震荡整理，截止收盘，沪指涨0.13%，收报4128.37点；深证成指涨 0.02%，收报14210.63点；创业板指跌0.37%，收报3320.54点。 沪深京三市成交额 21249亿，较昨日缩量1455亿。 老水看盘 今天 A 股走势波澜不惊，也在意料之中。 昨 天 评论中 水皮 已提示，盘面收出小阴小阳均属正常走势，节前长时间休市，叠加昨 天 大盘大涨，市场自然需要时间犹豫、平衡与调整。权重指标股 今天 同步休养生息，个股涨跌 也因此完全由热点板块主导。 今天 市场核心热点聚焦影视板块， 两个 因素推动该板块掀起涨停潮。其一，春节档票房预期 成为核心催化，本次春节假期时长可观，市场对春节票房表现抱有较高期待，若票房数据亮 眼，节后板块或迎来锦上添花的行情；若票房不及预期，板块则大概率面临大幅调整。 另一个因素是 字节跳动 今天 推出的 Seedance 2.0 软件，在视频制作技术上实现新的突 破，这也是 今天 影视、文化、视频相关板块获资金追捧的重要原因。但需要提醒的是， AI 技术对行业的影响究竟是赋能还是颠覆，仍存在较大不确 ...

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 稳中向好 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日集体走强，沪指收复4100点整数关口。截止收盘，沪指涨1.41%，收报 4123.09点；深证成指涨2.17%，收报14208.44点；创业板指涨2.98%，收报3332.77 点。 沪深京三市成交额达到2.27万亿，较上一交易日放量1067亿。 老水看盘 今天 A 股迎来普涨行情，皆大欢喜。 受美国三大指数大涨带动，亚太地区股指集体飘红，日本、韩国股指涨幅达 4%，恒生指数上 涨 1.76%。相较之下，上证指数 1.41% 的涨幅虽不突出，但个股表现亮眼，全市场上涨个 股约 4400 家，下跌个股仅七百余家，形成普涨格局。 今天 市场成交量达 2.2 万亿，虽较 此前有所萎缩，但系资金 惜售 所致，整体量价配合良好，无明显问题。 今天 市场上涨主线聚焦硬核科技板块。受纳斯达克指数大幅上涨、英伟达涨幅约 8% 的联动 影响，导致A 股的"易中天"普遍迎来大涨，涨幅均超 4%，特别是天孚通信盘中一度达20% 的涨幅，"纪联海"为代表的芯片、半导体股，涨幅也均在 4% 左右。全天科技股迎来狂欢， 软硬件相关标的均有亮眼表现。 与之相对，前 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective pullback today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25% closing at 4065.58 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.33% at 13906.73 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.73% at 3236.46 points [3][4] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.16 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 309 billion yuan compared to the previous day [3][4] External Influences - The US stock market saw significant declines, particularly in the Nasdaq, which heavily impacted the Asia-Pacific markets, leading to a weak opening for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [4][5] - Despite the initial drop, there was a rebound as funds entered the market for bargain hunting, with A-shares showing resilience against external shocks [4] Sector Performance - The petrochemical sector, represented by the "three barrels of oil," performed well, contributing significantly to the Shanghai Composite Index, with companies like Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC leading the gains [4] - Conversely, the consumer sector, particularly represented by the "two bottles of liquor," faced notable declines, with significant adjustments in commercial retail, liquor, tourism, and other related industries [4] Individual Stock Movements - The semiconductor sector experienced a maximum intraday drop of approximately 1.7%, closing down 1.1%, while the commercial aerospace sector saw a maximum drop of 2%, closing down around 1.7% [5] - Major financial sectors, including banks, insurance, and securities, attempted to stabilize the market but showed limited upward momentum due to insufficient capital inflow [5] Earnings Reports and Market Sentiment - Recent earnings reports from major tech companies, despite exceeding expectations, raised concerns about their increased AI-related capital expenditures and whether these would yield anticipated returns [6] - The market reaction to these earnings reports has been described as an overreaction, with fears of "zero-sum" impacts on tech giants leading to significant pressure on indices like the Hang Seng [6]

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 根 据 国 家 能 源 局 发 布 的 数 据 ， 2025 年 全 国 光 伏 累 计 装 机 已 达 315GW （ 直 流 侧 约 363GW ） ，而新型储能装机规模同比增长高达85%，达到144.7GW。 据 IHS 中 国 装 机 数 据 （ 直 流 侧）预测，26年国内装机将下滑至259GW，直到2030年前后才能提升至2025年的水平。 显 然 ， 单 纯 追 求 装 机 规 模 的 时 代 正 在 过 去 ， 未 来 光 伏 如 何 与 储 能 更 高 效 地 配 合 ， 真 正 实 现"1+1>2"的系统效益，将直接决定项目在激烈竞争与政策导向下的生存空间与发展潜力。 在此背景下，行业逐渐形成共识：配置储能是实现项目增值的路径，而选择高可靠、高适应性 的光伏组件，则是锁定长期收益的基石。这也解释了为何通威近日正式发布的TNC 3.0系列四 分片组件受到行业广泛关注——市场对技术的期待，已从单纯的参数提升，转向对实际发电场 景与全生命周期收益的系统性优化，核心诉求正是："高品质，多发电"。 核心技术层面，其四分片设计通过TPE（ 电池切割损伤 修复）技 ...

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 围魏救赵 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌0.64%，收报4075.92点；深证成指跌 1.44%，收报13952.71点；创业板指跌1.55%，收报3260.28点。 沪深京三市成交额仅有 21945亿，较昨日缩量3090亿。 老水看盘 上证指数今天呈现缩量回调态势，走出浅 V 形态，K 线图收出一根阳十字星。 特别值得关注的是港股的走势，今天恒生指数、恒生科技指数同样呈现探底回升走势，特别是 恒生指数收盘上涨 0.14%，成交金额 3151 亿港币，处于放量水平。资金面方面，北水南下 态势显著，今天净买入金额达 249 亿港币，较昨天翻了一倍。 个股方面，此前遭刻意做空的腾讯控股从下跌 3% 一路反弹至红盘报收，宣布 50 亿美元回 购计划的百度高开高走，阿里巴巴盘中一度下跌 3%，最终亦红盘收盘。恒生科技指数的探底 回升，与 A 股调整后有望反身向上的方向保持一致。（本文数据来自：choice数据） 一句话点评：围魏救赵 。 截至收盘，上证指数下跌 0.64%，深证成指跌幅更大，达 1.44%。个股表现普遍回落，下跌 个股数量达 3553 家， ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.85% to close at 4102.20 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.21% to 14156.27 points. The ChiNext Index experienced a decline of 0.4%, closing at 3311.51 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 2.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 623 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2][3]. Sector Performance - The significant rise in the Shanghai Composite Index was primarily driven by the strong performance of the "YYDS" sectors, which include banking, telecommunications, oil and coal, and electric power. These sectors, known for their resilience during the previous bear market, collectively supported the index's upward movement [4][5]. - Key sectors contributing to the index's rise included coal, photovoltaic, and aviation, while the real estate sector and its related industries, such as steel, cement, construction design, and engineering, also showed rebound trends. In contrast, the precious metals sector and AI-related industries, including cultural media, gaming, internet services, and software development, faced declines [5][6]. Stock Performance - A total of 3180 stocks rose, while 1983 stocks fell, with a median increase of 0.45%. The trading volume was 2.47 trillion yuan, indicating a general upward trend among individual stocks [6]. - The micro-cap stocks reached new highs, contrasting with the performance of the "YYDS" sectors, highlighting a market environment where opportunities are polarized, with limited chances for the middle 80% of stocks [6]. Capital Flow - In terms of capital flow, there was a net outflow of 155 billion yuan from the Shanghai market and 498 billion yuan from the Shenzhen market, reflecting a divergence in capital movement that corresponds with the differing index performances [6]. Technology Sector - The Hang Seng Technology Index opened lower and closed down by 1.84%, with Tencent Holdings leading the decline. The company had previously engaged in buybacks to support its stock price but paused these actions during the earnings disclosure period, leading to increased selling pressure. This situation raised concerns about internal management issues within Tencent, while Alibaba showed relative resilience [7].

今天开盘后，香港恒生指数大幅杀跌，盘中最大跌幅达 3.37%，这一跌幅意义重大 —— 一 举击穿了恒生科技指数自去年以来的调整低位，呈现向下破位走势，必然在一定程度上引发市 场恐慌。其中，腾讯控股跌幅最为显著，盘中跌幅达 6%，百度、阿里巴巴等个股也出现较大 幅度下跌。背后原因是市场同时流传三个版本的 "小作文"：其一，增值税税率将效仿中国电 信，从 3% 上调至 9%，跨越 6% 的幅度；其二，平台企业不再适用高新技术企业 15% 的 税收优惠，需按 25% 的税率缴纳企业所得税；其三，游戏行业税负将向白酒行业看齐。 水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 不破不立 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日集体走强，截止收盘，沪指涨1.29%，收报4067.74点；深证成指涨 2.19%，收报14127.11点；创业板指涨1.86%，收报3324.89点。 沪深京三市成交额 25658亿，较昨日小幅缩量411亿。 老水看盘 "小作文"非常可恶，因其翻手为云、覆手为雨，其行为给市场带来巨大冲击。但更值得关注的 是，此类 "小作文" 为何能有传播空间。 这类传闻并非首次出现，但以往多为单一版本传播，此次三个版本同时发酵，显然 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 2.48% to close at 4015.75 points, marking the largest single-day drop since April 7, 2025 [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 2.69% to 13824.35 points, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.46% to 3264.11 points [3] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 260.69 billion, a decrease of 255.8 billion from the previous trading day [3] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 4465 stocks declined, while only 741 stocks rose, indicating a broad market sell-off [3] - The median decline across all stocks was 2.15%, reflecting a simultaneous drop in both volume and price [3] Sector Performance - Only two sectors, electric grid equipment and the liquor industry, saw gains, with the liquor sector's core stocks performing particularly well [4] - The banking sector attempted to stabilize the market but ultimately closed down by 0.26% [4] - The most significant declines were seen in cyclical stocks, particularly precious metals, with declines in mining, coal, non-ferrous metals, steel, and oil sectors, many of which experienced drops close to 5% [4] Commodity Market Impact - The commodity market experienced extreme volatility, with gold prices plummeting to $4559 per ounce, a drop of 3.83%, and oil prices falling by 4.88% [5] - Silver prices also fell to $73.15 per ounce, down by 6.81%, indicating a chain reaction affecting related A-share sectors [5] Economic Indicators - Recent PMI data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed a comprehensive decline in economic activity, with manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite business indices all falling below the "50 boom-bust line," indicating a slowdown compared to the end of last year [5] - The real estate and construction materials sectors weakened significantly, influenced by a reported loss of 82 billion from Vanke, compounding the market's challenges [5] Future Market Outlook - The current market downturn is seen as a potential opportunity for the upcoming Spring Festival market rally, with expectations for the index to form a new range-bound trading pattern [6] - The core support logic is based on the prior cooling of large blue-chip stocks under "national team" regulation, which has mitigated some risks [6] - Blue-chip valuations are at historical lows, suggesting limited downside potential for the index, as evidenced by the stable performance of major liquor stocks and the four major banks [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.96% to close at 4117.95 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.66% to 14205.89 points. In contrast, the ChiNext Index rose by 1.27% to 3346.36 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 286.27 billion, a decrease of 39.7 billion from the previous day [3][5]. Sector Performance - Technology stocks emerged as the unexpected leaders in supporting the market, particularly driven by the strong performance of "Yizhongtian," which saw an average increase of around 6%. This significantly impacted the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices, while financial stocks, which were previously expected to support the market, became the main force behind the sell-off, with the securities sector down 1.72%, insurance down 1.1%, and banking down 0.41% [4][6]. Trading Dynamics - The market experienced a notable sell-off today, marking one of the largest adjustments in recent times, with trading volume shrinking to approximately 2.86 trillion. This indicates that the market cooling measures have had some effect, particularly in suppressing speculative trading in thematic stocks [5][6]. Commodity and Sector Trends - The metal-related sectors collectively faced significant declines, with precious metals down 8.52%, energy metals down 7.29%, and mining down 5.53%. This was largely attributed to sharp fluctuations in gold prices, which dropped from $5626 per ounce to around $5400, affecting the performance of related commodities [7][9]. Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural and aquaculture sectors showed resilience, with some stocks rising despite the overall market downturn. However, the sustainability of this rally is questionable, as the sector has not undergone sufficient adjustment, and price increases may not lead to lasting trends due to overcapacity in domestic industries [8][9]. Key Signals - Two critical signals warrant attention: first, the gold market appears to have reached a turning point, with speculative trading potentially nearing its end. Second, significant volatility was observed in the U.S. stock market, particularly with the Nasdaq index, which reflects ongoing debates about the sustainability of AI-related investments, especially following substantial declines in major tech stocks like Microsoft [9][10].

尽管沪深 300ETF、上证 50ETF 仍是大机构的调整对象，尤其是午后至尾盘阶段的波动更为 明显，但出人意料的是，这两只 ETF 反而成为今天表现最佳的品种 —— 上证 50ETF （510050）上涨 1.85%，沪深 300ETF（510300）上涨 0.91%；与之形成反差的是， 中证 500ETF（510500）下跌 1.15%，中证 1000ETF（512100）下跌 0.77%。 水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 大变活人 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指涨0.16%，收报4157.98点；深证成指跌0.30%，收报 14300.08点；创业板指跌0.57%，收报3304.51点。 沪深京三市成交额达到32597亿，较昨日放量2671亿。 老水看盘 哪里有压迫哪里就有反抗，沪深两市今天再现怪异一幕。 排版：刘雪影 权重指标股的表现更令人大跌眼镜。 "两瓶酒"——贵州茅台、五粮液盘中一度逼近涨停，白 酒板块内涨停个股数量众多；"三桶油" 盘中险些创下新高，银行板块上涨 1.82%，证券板块 上涨 1.08%，保险板块大涨 3.44%。在国际黄金价格突破 5500 美元 / ...