水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 击鼓传花 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日小幅回调，截止收盘，沪指跌0.12%，收报3635.13点；深证成指跌0.26%，收报 11128.67点；创业板指跌0.38%，收报2333.96点。 沪深两市成交额17102亿，较昨日缩量1153亿。 小水看盘 山中无老虎，猴子称大王。 今日市场波澜不惊，指数虽呈 " 环保 " 态势（即下跌），但跌幅有限：上证指数仅跌 0.12% ，深成指跌 0.26% ，创业板指跌 0.38% 。个股涨跌各半，成交量为 1.71 万亿 元，再次呈现明显缩量格局。总体而言，市场心态平稳，这一特点也体现在走势上。 盘面上，雅江概念卷土重来是最大看点。板块方面，水泥建材领涨，涨幅达 2.83% ；交运设 备涨 2.81% ，工程机械涨 2.13% ，工程建设涨 1.70% 。此外，风电设备、钢铁、电力等 板块走势也相对较强，涨幅均在 1% 以上，这些板块均与雅江概念相关。 从概念股来看，雅江概念整体上涨 2.69% 。昨日跌停的山河智能今日领涨该板块，收盘涨停 （涨幅约 10% ）；西藏天路涨 7% ，铁建重工涨 6% ，华新水泥涨 5.4% ，西宁 ...

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 中国证监会今天在收盘之后，就中国资本市场增强吸引力和包容性回答相关记者提问。 一、证监会仍将稳步推进资本市场高水平制度型开放 三、证监会将更大力度培育壮大长期资本、耐心资本 下一步，如何通过改革增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性？ 证监会将坚定不移把全面深化资 本市场改革推向前进，更大力度培育壮大长期资本、耐心资本，加快构建支持"长钱长投"的政 策体系，扎实推进中长期资金入市和公募基金改革；以深化科创板、创业板改革为抓手，以发 展多元股权融资为重点，健全覆盖各类企业发展全生命周期需求的股债期产品和服务体系，更 好服务新质生产力发展；不断完善上市公司全链条的监管制度安排，抓好并购重组改革落地， 加大上市公司分红、回购激励约束，强化资本市场财务造假综合惩防，推动上市公司在高质量 发展中更好回报投资者。 本文来源：人民财讯、证券时报 下一阶段证监会仍将稳步推进资本市场高水平制度型开放，以开放促改革、促发展，系统研究 完善资本市场对外开放总体布局、实施路径，稳妥有序抓好自主开放重点举措落实落地，推动 在岸与离岸市场协同发展，持续深化市场、产品和机构的全方位开放，持续拓展资本市场跨 ...

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 仙人指路 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日涨跌不一，沪指创今年以来新高。截止收盘，沪指涨0.16%，收报3639.67 点；深证成指跌0.18%，收报11157.94点；创业板指跌0.68%，收报2342.86点。 沪深两 市成交额达到18255亿，较昨日放量914亿。 小水看盘 冰火两重天 。 别看今天上证指数以 3639 点的收盘价 报收，同时 创了本轮反弹以来的新高，但是对于大多 数的投资者而言，无非又是陪太子读书的一天。 为什么这么说呢？因为不但 深成指 全天都在调整，创业板更是收了一根中阴线。而且两个市 场下跌的个股实际上多达 3000 家左右，上涨的不过 2000 家出头，上午短暂的跳水恐慌期 间，下跌的个股更是多达 4000 家。 今天全天的成交量是 1.83 万亿，比起昨天又放大了 900 亿左右。显而易见，量能并不足以 推动整个市场整体上行。 即便是上证指数，我们可以看到一共才上涨了 5.68 个点，而六大银行（工农中建交，加上 邮储 银行）就贡献了 5.70 个点。换句话来讲，如果刨去六大行，那么上证指数不但没有上 涨，而且还是下跌的。这就是一个非常严酷的 ...

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 强者恒强 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日集体上涨，沪指创年内收盘新高。截止收盘，沪指涨0.45%，收报3633.99 点；深证成指涨0.64%，收报11177.78点；创业板指涨0.66%，收报2358.95点。 沪深两 市成交额达到17341亿，较昨日放量1380亿。 小水看盘 此新高不是彼新高，因为含金量不一样。 7 月 30 号，上证指数盘中创下 3636 点的新高，收盘报 3615 点。但上涨的股票仅 1713 家，下跌的却多达 3615 家。且深圳的两个指数不仅没有上涨，反而下跌，跌幅 还 不小：深 成指跌 0.77% ，创业板更惨，跌约 1.6% 。换言之，此次指数上涨是以大多数股票下跌为 代价的。 8 月 6 日，上证指数虽盘中未创出新高，但收盘价达到 3634 点，创下收盘价新高。当日上 涨的个股多达 3197 家，下跌的仅 1715 家。也就是说，今天不仅指数上涨，个股也普遍上 涨。事实上，上证指数并非涨幅最高的，其上涨 0.45% ，深成指上涨 0.64% ，创业板指数 上涨 0.66% 。这种情况在过去并不多见。 今日成交量放大至 1.73 万亿，较昨 ...

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 有恃无恐 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日集体上涨，沪指重返3600点上方。截止收盘，沪指涨0.96%，收报 3617.60点；深证成指涨0.59%，收报11106.96点；创业板指涨0.39%，收报2343.38 点。 沪深两市成交额达到15961亿，较昨日放量975亿。 小水看盘 尽管今天三大指数均上涨报收，但从分时图来看，走势存在差异。 深圳成指呈 V 字形走势，盘中一度"潜水"，尤其是创业板呈现海底捞形态；上证指数则基本 高开高走，全然一副"六亲不认"的模样稳步上行。原因很简单，今天主要是金融股的行情。 板块指数方面，银行股今天上涨 1.75% ，保险股上涨 1.97% 。银行股曾一度升至涨幅榜首 位，四大行、"两桶油"今天对指数贡献较大。因此，上证指数重返 3600 点之上，报收 3617 点，涨幅 0.96% 。深成指相对偏弱，涨幅只有 0.59% ，几乎仅为上证指数的一半。 创业板涨幅更低，仅 0.33% 。究其原因，同为指标股，深圳的两大主要指标股宁德时代与比 亚迪均高开低走，最终绿盘报收。一定程度上，拖累了创业板指数。 不过总体而言，今天上涨个股较多，达 3 ...

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 上证指数怎么红？很难红！ 在 " YYDS "中，今天长江电力尾盘拉升，站到多头一方；中国移动、中国神华则归入空头阵 营。现在 YYDS 现在已经是一分为二，已从过去的同进共退演变为相互拉扯。 盘面上，尽管指数不争气，但实际跌幅不大，深成指仅跌 0.17% ，创业板指跌 0.24% ，二 者盘中均呈小 V 字形走势。盘中创业板最多跌了 1% ，深成指最多跌了 0.8% 左右。上证指 各自为战 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日小幅回调 ，截止收盘，沪指跌0.37%，收报3559.95点；深证成指跌 0.17%，收报10991.32点；创业板指跌0.24%，收报2322.63点。 沪深两市成交额15984 亿，较昨日大幅缩量3377亿。 小水看盘 关键时刻，扮演中流砥柱的还得是银行，尤其是 "四大行"。 正是因为 "四大行"的强力支撑，上证指数才能在 3560 点的位置上下震荡。农业银行连续 3 天创下收盘新高，工商银行也连涨 3 天，一定程度上稳定了人心。 相比之下， "两桶油"今天却扮演了砸盘的角色。"两桶油"因半年报业绩下滑 30% 扮演了砸 盘角色，中石化开盘即跌，一跌就 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.18% to close at 3573.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.73% to 11009.77 points, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.66% to 2328.31 points [2][3][4] - This marks the largest single-day decline since April 7, with a total trading volume of 19.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 91.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day [4][12] Index Performance - The CSI 300 Index, which represents major stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, saw a larger drop of 1.82%, indicating significant contributions from heavyweight stocks to the overall market decline [5] - Out of 4274 stocks in the two markets, only 1060 stocks rose, highlighting a broad-based sell-off [5] Sector Analysis - Only six sectors showed positive performance, primarily driven by pharmaceutical stocks due to ongoing speculation in innovative drugs, and sectors related to information technology [6] - The sectors with the largest declines included coal and non-ferrous metals, with steel and photovoltaic equipment also experiencing drops of over 2.63% [6] Individual Stock Impact - Major negative contributors to the Shanghai Composite Index included China Life, Ping An Insurance, Kweichow Moutai, Yangtze Power, and China Mobile [7] - For the Shenzhen Component Index, CATL, BYD, Midea Group, Wuliangye, and Dongfang Caifu had the most significant negative impacts, with CATL experiencing a 4.45% drop following disappointing revenue expectations [7][8] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market's sudden downturn occurred shortly after a political bureau meeting emphasized stabilizing the capital market, leading to concerns about irrational panic selling [9][10] - Despite the overall market decline, major banks showed resilience, with Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Bank of China all posting slight gains [11] - The recent speculative trading behavior, particularly in stocks like Weiwei New Materials, which surged 1200% in a month, has raised concerns about regulatory scrutiny and potential repercussions for the broader market [11][12]

以下文章来源于泽平宏观展望 ，作者泽平宏观团队 泽平宏观展望 . 科学专业的财经，实战经济学 文： 泽平宏观团队 第三，货币政策，适度宽松，促进社会综合融资成本下行。预计 未来可能继续降息。 重点 推动利率工具的下调与流动性的前瞻性投放 。 第四，产业政策，重视科技创新、推动良性竞争。 预计 下半年继续 以未来产业和卡脖子相 关产业为重点领域，强化企业作为科技创新主体的地位 。 此次未直接提及"内卷"，表述较为温 和，或因近日市场炒作过热，政策面希望其回归正常内涵。 第五，房地产政策，高质量城市更新。 本次会议未重点提及房地产，提出落实好中央城市 工作会议精神，高质量开展城市更新。 第六，扩内需，从消费场景和消费能力方面共同发力。 关于提升消费能力未来可能出台的政 策包括社保缴费比例优化、个税结构调整、灵活就业者支持政策等。 第七，保民生， 突出就业优先政策导向。 就业 和 救助 兼顾发展和兜底 ，两者共同 推进 社 会稳定和消费信心 的 重建。 2025 年 7 月 30 日，政治局会议召开。总结上半年经济形势，布置下一步工作。 基调上延 续稳中求进，强调保持政策稳定性兼顾灵活性，着力稳预期。 本次会议传递 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the severe debt crisis facing China's real estate sector, highlighting the significant amount of bad debt and the implications for the broader economy [1][4]. Group 1: Debt Restructuring - Many private real estate companies in China are undergoing debt restructuring, which is essentially a way to default on debts, with creditors often receiving only a fraction of what they are owed [1][2]. - For example, a company may offer four options for debt repayment, including cash, stock swaps, asset exchanges, and debt extensions, but the actual value received by creditors is significantly lower than the original debt [2]. Group 2: Scale of Debt - The total domestic debt of Chinese real estate companies is approximately 6.5 trillion yuan, with an additional 3.5 trillion yuan owed internationally, peaking in maturity this year and next [2]. - The banking sector is exposed to around 50 trillion yuan in loans to real estate, with conservative estimates suggesting banks could face losses of over 30% due to declining land values [2]. - Other liabilities include 15-20 trillion yuan in trust and wealth management products, and 5-8 trillion yuan in debts owed to suppliers, leading to an estimated 50 trillion yuan in bad debts from the real estate bubble [2]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The 50 trillion yuan in bad debts represents a significant financial burden, equating to ten years of land sale revenues or three times the annual tax revenue [2]. - The ultimate burden of these bad debts will likely be transferred to the general public, either through bank failures or inflation caused by central bank interventions [2][5]. Group 4: Historical Context - The article draws a parallel with Japan's real estate crisis in the 1990s, where the total real estate debt was 450-550 trillion yen, approximately 220% of GDP, and took over 20 years to resolve [4]. - The ongoing debt crisis in China's real estate sector suggests that the repercussions may last for many years, with the societal costs just beginning to surface [5].

Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed results today, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, closing up 0.17% at 3615.72 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77% to 11203.03 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.62% to 2367.68 points [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 184.43 billion, an increase of 41 billion compared to the previous day [2] Sector Analysis - The performance of major indices reversed compared to previous trends, with significant declines in key stocks like CATL, which fell 5.05%, while previously underperforming bank stocks, such as Agricultural Bank, rose by 1.47% [5] - The banking sector index saw a decline of approximately 7% from its peak of 4632 points on July 11, while it had increased by 52% from a low of 3030 points on April 7 [9][10] - The insurance sector peaked on June 27 at 1566.46 points and has since dropped to around 1444 points, reflecting a decline of about 7.7% [11] - The brokerage sector has shown limited growth, with a rise of approximately 4.45% from 1516.78 points on July 11 to 1588.41 points currently [12] Economic Context - The recent market fluctuations are attributed to the ongoing adjustments in major sectors, particularly the banking and insurance sectors, which have seen significant volatility [4][6] - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting provided a positive outlook for the capital market, emphasizing stability and attractiveness, although the market's upward movement still falls short of expectations [6][7] - The third round of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations has resulted in a three-month delay in tariffs, which is seen as a consensus but still requires final approval from the U.S. side [7]