生死72小时！华尔街进入“战备状态”

Core Viewpoint - Investors are preparing for a critical week in the U.S. market, with significant economic events, corporate earnings reports, and impending tariff deadlines testing Wall Street's resolve [3][4]. Economic Events - A series of economic data releases will begin with the U.S. GDP for Q2, followed by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and concluding with the July employment report [5][16]. - The Atlanta Fed predicts a Q2 GDP annualized growth rate of approximately 2.9%, primarily reflecting a decrease in imports [13]. Corporate Earnings - The earnings season is peaking, with major companies like Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon set to report their financial results, collectively valued over $11 trillion, indicating a significant impact on Wall Street [6]. Market Sentiment - There is growing unease among analysts and investors regarding the scale of the recent stock market gains, with the S&P 500 index up 8.3% this year and a 12-month price-to-earnings ratio expected to reach 22 times [9]. - The market has seen a shift in sentiment as a result of trade agreements with major partners and a temporary truce with China, leading to a reduction in recession probabilities [10][11][12]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, despite external pressures for lower borrowing costs [14]. - Investors are keen to observe any widening of divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee regarding interest rate decisions [15]. Tariff Uncertainty - There is heightened uncertainty regarding whether the Trump administration will impose tariffs on countries without trade agreements by the August 1 deadline, which could lead to significant market volatility [18][19]. - Market strategists express caution, noting that tariff risks and related uncertainties remain prevalent [20].