国泰海通｜宏观：政策连续，兼顾长短——2025年7月政治局会议点评

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the continuity of policies while balancing short-term growth and long-term reforms, particularly in the context of the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" and the current economic situation [3][5][7]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The Politburo meeting on July 30, 2025, assessed the economic situation more positively compared to the April meeting, noting a GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, which exceeded annual targets [7][9]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and flexibility, with expectations for a potential "timely increase" in policy support in the latter half of the year [9][10]. Policy Deployment - Fiscal and monetary policies are shifting from "utilizing effectively" to "implementing in detail," focusing on improving the efficiency of fund usage and leveraging structural monetary policy tools [10][11]. - The concept of "anti-involution" has evolved, moving away from merely addressing low prices to a broader focus on quality and regulatory compliance within a unified national market [10][11]. - There is an increased emphasis on stabilizing the capital market, with a call to consolidate the positive momentum observed since April [11]. - Risk prevention and resolution in key areas are entering a new phase, particularly in real estate and local government debt management [11]. Future Considerations - The article suggests that while there is less urgency for new stimulus policies due to improved economic data and reduced external tensions, the government retains the option to implement additional measures if necessary [5][11]. - Close attention should be paid to the definitive industrial clues outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan" as it develops [5][11].