鲍威尔压制降息预期，美股回落

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has not yet decided on policy adjustments for September, leading to a cooling of market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2023 [1][3]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose 0.4% intraday but closed down 0.12% at 6362.90 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 171.71 points, or 0.38%, to 44461.28 points; the Nasdaq Composite slightly increased by 0.15% to 21129.67 points [1][2]. - The Chinese Golden Dragon Index dropped 1.82% to 7413.12 points, while the Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 0.89% to 23661.75 points [2]. Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate range, aligning with market expectations, but emphasized the need for further evaluation of tariffs' impact on inflation and the economy [3]. - Powell's comments were interpreted as hawkish, reducing the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September from 64% to 46% according to CME FedWatch [3][4]. - The meeting saw dissent from two Fed governors advocating for a rate cut, indicating internal disagreements on policy timing [8]. Economic Data - The U.S. second-quarter GDP grew by 3%, significantly above the expected 2.4%, with a total GDP of $236,853 billion [11]. - The core PCE price index for the second quarter rose by 2.5%, while the overall PCE index increased by 2.1%, below the expected 2.9% [11]. - July's ADP employment numbers showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 75,000 [12]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, consumer stocks, particularly those sensitive to interest rates, experienced declines, reflecting concerns over potential valuation adjustments if rate cuts do not materialize [9]. - The market's response to the Fed's decision was relatively mild, as many participants had already anticipated the direction of interest rates [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts express concerns about the potential overheating of the market, despite recent highs, suggesting that the rapid sell-off and rebound may not indicate overheating but rather a recovery [16].