美联储继续按兵不动，但32年来首现两名理事投反对票，鲍威尔淡化9月降息预期

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to pause interest rate cuts as expected by the market [1][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The FOMC members, including Powell, supported maintaining the current interest rates, while Waller and Bowman advocated for a 25 basis point cut [2][9]. - The statement removed the phrase indicating that economic uncertainty had diminished and reiterated that uncertainty remains high, changing the description of economic growth from "steady expansion" to "moderate growth in the first half of the year" [3][18][20]. - The decision to pause interest rates marks the fifth consecutive meeting without action, following three rate cuts totaling 100 basis points since last September [10][22]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements - This meeting revealed the largest internal disagreement among Fed officials since the rate cut cycle began, with two officials voting against the decision to maintain rates [4][15]. - The dissenting votes from Waller and Bowman highlight a fracture in consensus regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy [4][17]. - Economists view the statement as more dovish than expected, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in September [5][12]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Fed's statement emphasized that economic uncertainty remains high and noted a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year [18][20]. - The labor market appears robust, but inflation remains above target, which traders interpreted as unfavorable for immediate rate cuts [13][24]. - The Fed plans to continue reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, with a slower pace of balance sheet reduction [21][22].