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【广发宏观陈嘉荔】鲍威尔顶住压力继续暂停降息
郭磊宏观茶座·2025-07-31 07:06

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5% during the July 2025 FOMC meeting, marking the fifth pause since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024. The decision to not lower rates was in line with market expectations, although two officials voted against it, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [1][8]. Summary by Sections FOMC Meeting Outcomes - The FOMC's decision to keep rates unchanged aligns with market expectations, with two officials dissenting for a rate cut [1][8]. - The Fed continues to reduce its balance sheet, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1][8]. Economic Outlook - The July FOMC statement showed a slight weakening in the description of economic growth but did not indicate a dovish shift. Employment remains solid, inflation is still high, and the unemployment rate is low [2][9]. - The statement changed the description of economic growth from "solid expansion" to "moderate slowdown" for the first half of the year, consistent with GDP data released on July 30 [2][10]. Powell's Remarks - Powell's stance on future rate cuts remains cautious, emphasizing a "wait and see" approach. He noted that upcoming employment and inflation reports will inform the September meeting's decisions [3][11]. - Despite a low unemployment rate, Powell acknowledged that inflation is above target, suggesting a moderately restrictive monetary policy is appropriate [3][13]. Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, market expectations for a September rate cut decreased significantly, with the probability dropping from 63.3% to 41.2% [6][18]. - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 5 basis points to 4.37%, and the dollar index increased to 99.82, indicating a potential rebound in the dollar [6][18]. GDP Data Insights - The U.S. Q2 GDP showed a significant rebound with a quarter-over-quarter annualized growth rate of +3%, surpassing expectations of +2.4%. However, this rebound included technical factors due to a sharp decline in imports [5][15]. - Final sales to private domestic purchasers grew by only +1.2%, the lowest since late 2022, indicating a slowdown in domestic demand [5][16]. Investment Implications - The overall economic data suggests that while there is resilience in the labor market, underlying demand is weakening, which may affect future monetary policy decisions [4][14].