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【招银研究|House View】“反内卷”推动风险偏好回升——招商银行研究院House View(2025年8月)
招商银行研究·2025-07-31 11:13

Group 1: Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommendation for cash products is to maintain a standard allocation due to stable returns, while acknowledging a long-term downward trend in yields [2] - For fixed income, the focus is on short to medium-term bonds, with an emphasis on opportunities in long-term bonds when yields rebound [2] - In equities, a balanced allocation is suggested, with a focus on dividend stocks and sectors like technology and healthcare [2] Group 2: Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a decline in internal momentum, with Q2 GDP growth at 3.0%, primarily supported by a reduction in imports [4][5] - European economic conditions are improving, with fiscal policies remaining loose and inflation returning to reasonable levels, contributing to a recovery in economic sentiment [4][21] - Japan's economic outlook is mixed, with wage growth lagging behind inflation, impacting consumer spending and investment [27][31] Group 3: U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. fiscal position is tightening, leading to a decrease in disposable income and a cooling of consumer spending [9][12] - Long-term interest rates remain high, affecting investment in interest-sensitive sectors such as real estate and traditional manufacturing [12] - Despite economic cooling, the job market remains stable, with unemployment rates unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% [12][14] Group 4: European Economic Recovery - The Eurozone is showing signs of resilience, with PMI indicators reflecting a rebound in both manufacturing and services sectors [21][22] - Inflation in the Eurozone is stabilizing around the ECB's target of 2%, providing confidence for the ECB to pause interest rate cuts [22] - The recent U.S.-EU trade agreement is expected to reduce uncertainty and support economic growth in the Eurozone [22] Group 5: Commodity Market Insights - Gold is expected to experience short-term fluctuations but remains a viable investment due to central bank purchases and market expectations of interest rate cuts [51] - Brent crude oil prices are projected to challenge $80 per barrel in the short term, but long-term pressures may push prices down to around $50 [56] - Copper prices may stabilize as production season approaches, following a period of price adjustments due to tariffs [56]