国泰海通｜煤炭：不一样的煤炭，中期行业拐点已现

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry has emerged from the "cash flow pressure prisoner’s dilemma," with the second quarter of 2025 potentially marking the bottom of the mid-term industry fundamentals [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The coal industry has transitioned from a state of "cash flow pressure prisoner’s dilemma," with significant improvements in supply and demand fundamentals, indicating that the sector may have reached the bottom of the current cycle, maintaining an "overweight" rating [2]. - The supply-side reform has led to central state-owned enterprises dominating the industry, accounting for approximately 85% of the top 50 market share [3]. - From 2021 to 2024, the industry is expected to see substantial profit improvements and a rapid decline in debt ratios, alleviating repayment pressures [3]. - The National Energy Administration has indicated a shift away from "involution" in the coal industry, with a recovery in total electricity demand and a projected increase in coal demand by over 1% starting in May 2025 [4]. Price and Production Dynamics - The price of coal at ports fell below 650 RMB/ton in April 2025, leading to a significant reduction in production, aligning with economic principles of self-induced production cuts due to economic conditions [3]. - The combination of government regulatory measures and a decrease in imported coal is expected to stabilize total supply while allowing for a gradual decline [4].