研客专栏 | 7月议息：看点是联储内部分歧

Core Viewpoint - The July FOMC meeting was characterized by a lack of suspense regarding interest rates, as a rate cut was deemed unlikely based on inflation and employment data, yet it was filled with notable developments regarding internal divisions within the Federal Reserve [3][5]. Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The July FOMC meeting revealed significant internal dissent, with two members voting against maintaining the interest rate, a rare occurrence in nearly 30 years, indicating growing divisions within the Fed regarding economic risks and political pressures [5][6]. - Powell's language regarding economic forecasts has shifted, acknowledging a slowdown in economic activity while emphasizing the importance of labor market indicators, suggesting a cautious approach to potential rate cuts [6][7]. Group 2: Trade Policy and Inflation - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has been a major concern for the Fed, with Powell indicating that without tariffs, the Fed might have already moved to cut rates further [9][12]. - Recent trade agreements have reduced tariff uncertainties, allowing the Fed to better assess inflationary pressures, with a target tariff range of 10-20% established, which is expected to mitigate inflation impacts compared to previous worst-case scenarios [12][13]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The Fed's decision-making may shift focus to economic growth if inflation remains moderate in the coming months, despite pressures from import costs and rising tariffs [15][16]. - Employment indicators will gain importance in Fed decisions, as labor market growth has slowed, influenced by both demand factors and immigration restrictions, necessitating close monitoring of unemployment rates and wage growth [16][18].