【电新】多国政策边际改善，欧洲海风景气持续向上——欧洲海风系列报告（一）（殷中枢/郝骞/邓怡亮）

Core Viewpoint - The European offshore wind construction is accelerating due to improved strategic importance, reduced project costs, and policy-driven initiatives [3][4]. Group 1: Strategic Importance - The strategic importance of offshore wind has increased following the natural gas crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to a consensus among European countries to transition to renewable energy [3]. - The "Ostend Declaration" established a target for North Sea countries to achieve 120GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 and over 300GW by 2050 [3]. Group 2: Cost Reduction - Financing rates for offshore wind projects in Europe have decreased due to eight interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank since June 2024 [3]. - The development cost of offshore wind has dropped from $5,418/kW in 2010 to $3,138/kW in 2023, while the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) has fallen from $0.205/kWh to $0.067/kWh during the same period [3]. Group 3: Policy Goals - Various European countries have set clear policy goals and reformed auction systems to promote offshore wind development [4]. - The UK aims for 43-50GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030, with reforms to the Contracts for Difference (CfD) auction system to facilitate project development [4]. - Germany's new policy goals aim for cumulative offshore wind capacity of 30GW by 2030, 40GW by 2035, and 70GW by 2045, leading to a resurgence in project development [4]. - The Netherlands plans to tender 11GW of offshore wind capacity over the next three years to meet its 21GW target by 2032 [5]. - Poland is emerging as a new offshore wind market, with its first project starting construction by the end of 2024 and an expected 6GW of new capacity from 2025 to 2030 [5].