【百度集团-SW（9888.HK）】业绩承压待触底，关注AI广告商业化进展——25Q2业绩前瞻（付天姿/赵越）

Core Viewpoint - Baidu Group is expected to experience a decline in total revenue and core revenue in Q2 2025, with a focus on the challenges faced in its online marketing business and the ongoing transformation towards AI-driven services [3][4]. Group 1: Online Marketing Business - Baidu's core revenue is projected to be 257.2 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, with online marketing service revenue declining by 15.7% due to the transitional impact of AI integration [4]. - The search product and interaction methods are undergoing a comprehensive upgrade, enhancing AI experiences with support for natural language input and multi-modal queries, which may improve user engagement and conversion efficiency in the medium term [4]. - Baidu has launched an ad-free intelligent search app "TizzyAI," focusing on AI-driven content aggregation and logical reasoning, showing promising performance in search purity and content structuring [4]. Group 2: Non-Online Marketing Business - Non-online marketing business revenue is expected to reach 95.4 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27%, primarily driven by cloud services [5]. - The "萝卜快跑" service continues to grow, with a 75% increase in order volume in Q1 2025, and a strategic partnership with Uber aims to deploy thousands of autonomous vehicles in Asia and the Middle East [5]. - The Wenxin large model technology is evolving, with the release of Wenxin 4.5 Turbo and X1 Turbo, significantly reducing reasoning costs and achieving high multi-modal capabilities, which may enhance enterprise deployment willingness [5]. - Baidu's new digital human technology "NOVA" integrates advanced AI capabilities, potentially improving the naturalness of interactions and supporting dual-person interactions [5]. - Traditional content products are increasingly AI-driven, with the launch of the "沧舟OS" system enhancing video and document integration, leading to a rise in monthly active users for AI features in Baidu's library and cloud services [6].