中金：高关税与高利率限制美国经济增长

Core Viewpoint - The US economy shows resilience with a projected GDP growth rate of 3.0% for Q2 2025, but underlying weaknesses in domestic demand are evident, with private sector final sales growth slowing to 1.2%, the lowest in two years [1][3][6] Economic Growth Analysis - The actual GDP for Q2 2025 rebounded to an annualized rate of 3.0%, influenced significantly by fluctuations in imports and inventory [2][6] - The contribution of private consumption to GDP remains strong, but fixed asset investments, particularly in real estate and construction, have seen consecutive quarters of negative growth [1][3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth dropped sharply from 7.6% in Q1 to 0.4% in Q2, contributing only 0.08 percentage points to GDP [3] - High interest rates have notably suppressed construction and residential investments, while equipment investment growth has also slowed [3][6] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending rebounded in Q2 but remains weaker compared to 2024, with contributions to GDP fluctuating [3][6] - Durable goods consumption showed recovery, while non-durable goods consumption significantly declined [3] Government Spending - Government spending increased by 0.4% in Q2, contributing minimally to GDP growth, primarily driven by a rise in defense spending [4][6] Future Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to face constraints in the second half of the year due to tight monetary policy and potential increases in tariffs, which could further suppress growth and raise inflation [4][6] - The "Great Beautiful Act" introduced by Trump may provide some support to economic growth, potentially increasing GDP by 0.5% by 2026 [5][6] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation is anticipated to rise structurally in the second half of 2025, delaying the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][6] - The potential for increased tariffs poses additional risks to both consumer purchasing power and corporate profits, which may further inhibit investment and spending [4][6]