【招商电子】PCB行业跟踪报告：北美云厂AI-Capex再超预期，AI加速PCB技术跃升及格局重塑

Core Viewpoint - North American CSP companies like Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon have reported better-than-expected Q2 performance, driven by accelerating AI-related business growth and increased Capex guidance, indicating strong long-term demand for AI computing power [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Prosperity Trends - CSP companies have significantly raised their future AI Capex guidance, with Google increasing its 2025 Capex from $75 billion to $85 billion (up 62% YoY), Meta raising its guidance to $66-72 billion (up 68%-84% YoY), and Microsoft reporting a record $24.2 billion in Q2 Capex (up 27% YoY) [3]. - The demand for AI computing power is expected to remain high, driven by advancements in large models and accelerated commercialization of AI applications, with Google reporting a monthly token consumption of 980 trillion and Meta achieving over 1 billion monthly active users for its AI applications [3]. Group 2: AI PCB Product Upgrade Trends - The upgrade of AI PCB products is exemplified by NVIDIA's upcoming Rubin series, which will require higher-grade materials and more complex designs, leading to increased average selling prices (ASP) for AI PCBs [4][5]. - The trend towards higher layer counts and advanced packaging technologies like CoWoP will necessitate the adoption of more sophisticated manufacturing processes, reinforcing the competitive position of leading PCB manufacturers [5]. Group 3: Impact of PCB Capacity Expansion - A surge in demand for high-end PCBs has prompted major A-share PCB manufacturers to announce significant capacity expansions, with companies like Huadian and Pengding planning substantial investments [6]. - The expansion of high-end PCB capacity is expected to be quickly absorbed due to the increasing complexity and demand for advanced designs, mitigating concerns about potential overcapacity in the short term [6]. Group 4: Upstream Raw Material Impact - The upgrade trend in AI PCBs will heighten demand for high-speed materials, particularly M8/M9 CCL substrates and specialized fiberglass, with a projected CAGR of 26% for high-end CCL materials from 2024 to 2026 [7][8]. - Domestic manufacturers like Shengyi Technology are positioned to capture market share in high-end CCL supply chains, while the supply of specialized fiberglass remains constrained, creating opportunities for domestic firms [7][8]. Group 5: Equipment Demand from PCB Expansion - The expansion cycle driven by AI computing power will increase demand for PCB manufacturing equipment, particularly for drilling, exposure, and plating processes, with the PCB equipment market expected to grow significantly [9]. - Domestic equipment manufacturers are likely to benefit from the shift towards high-end equipment and the need for local replacements of imported machinery [9]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading PCB manufacturers and those with flexible production capabilities, as well as companies involved in high-end CCL and upstream raw materials [10].