【广发宏观贺骁束】高频数据下的7月经济：数量篇

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the current economic conditions in China, focusing on various sectors such as electricity generation, industrial production, infrastructure, real estate, and consumer goods, indicating a mixed recovery with some areas showing growth while others are experiencing declines. Group 1: Electricity Generation and Industrial Production - As of July 24, the cumulative electricity generation from coal-fired power plants increased by 3.3% year-on-year, reaching a high for the year, influenced by high temperatures and increased air conditioning usage [1][5]. - The operating rates of upstream industrial raw materials are generally better than previous values, with the operating rate of blast furnaces increasing by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [6][7]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Construction - There has been a slight improvement in infrastructure physical workload, with the national cement shipment rate recorded at 39.9%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - However, the funding availability rate for construction sites remains a concern, with a national average of 58.7%, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.4 percentage points [8]. Group 3: Real Estate Market - Real estate sales continue to show weakness, with the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities down 18.3% year-on-year [11][12]. - The number of second-hand housing transactions in 82 cities decreased by 18.7% year-on-year, indicating a significant slowdown in the market [12]. Group 4: Consumer Goods and Retail - Retail sales of passenger cars grew by 9% year-on-year from July 1 to 27, a slowdown compared to the previous month's 15% growth [12][14]. - Sales growth for major home appliances remains relatively high, although there is a noted slowdown in the latter half of July [14]. Group 5: Export and Shipping - Container throughput at domestic ports increased by 5.6% year-on-year, indicating a slight recovery in export activities [16][17]. - The data shows a gradual normalization of exports to the U.S., with container shipping numbers showing a small positive increase compared to previous months [16][17].