9月份可能不会降息——7月FOMC会议点评

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the market's expectation for interest rate cuts has significantly cooled following the July FOMC meeting, with indications that a rate cut in September is unlikely [2][4][8] - The FOMC has maintained the federal funds target rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting, which aligns with market expectations, but internal divisions within the Fed have increased, with two members supporting a 25 basis point cut [2][15][16] - The statement regarding economic growth has softened, indicating a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year, contrasting with previous assessments of robust expansion [2][16][17] Group 2 - Powell's press conference reflected a relatively neutral stance, acknowledging a slowdown in consumer spending while indicating that consumer conditions remain healthy [3][18][20] - The labor market is described as stable, with wage growth approaching sustainable long-term levels, although the unemployment rate's stability is partly due to synchronized declines in labor supply and demand [3][18][20] - Inflation dynamics have shifted, with service sector inflation decreasing while goods inflation is rising, influenced by tariffs and the gradual impact of restrictive monetary policy [3][20][21] Group 3 - Market expectations for rate cuts have decreased, with implied cuts for the year dropping from 1.848 to 1.445 times, and the probability of a September cut falling from 68% to 47% [4][21] - The dollar index has risen, and the yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds has increased, reflecting a market interpretation of Powell's statements as leaning towards a hawkish stance [4][21] - The article suggests that political pressure is not a significant factor influencing the Fed's decisions, as Powell has maintained the Fed's independence despite external pressures [5][11][12]