价格指数回升，传导尚有阻力——7月PMI数据点评

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI data for July indicates a slight decline, reflecting ongoing challenges in demand and business expectations, with price transmission facing resistance despite some improvements in raw material costs [2][20]. Group 1: Price Transmission Challenges - The purchasing price index for major raw materials rose above the critical point for the first time since March, but terminal prices remain weak, as evidenced by the PMI output price index continuing to stay below the expansion threshold [10][21]. - The BCI consumer price forecast index decreased to 40.14% from 43.84%, while the BCI intermediate goods price forecast index fell to 31.14% from 36.55%, indicating a lack of significant improvement in terminal prices [10][21]. Group 2: Demand Weakness - The manufacturing PMI new orders index fell to 49.4% in July from 50.2%, suggesting a decline in demand compared to previous months [4][20]. - The BCI enterprise sales forecast index also dropped to 51.08% from 54.63%, reflecting a weakening outlook for sales [4][14]. Group 3: Weak Business Expectations - Business activity expectations across manufacturing, construction, and services remain low, with the manufacturing expectation index slightly rising to 52.6% from 52.0%, but still below previous highs [5][17]. - The BIC enterprise recruitment forecast index decreased to 44.5% from 49.1%, indicating reduced hiring intentions among businesses [5][17]. Group 4: Manufacturing PMI Data - The July manufacturing PMI registered at 49.3%, down from 49.7%, with specific indices showing declines in production, new orders, and export orders [2][20]. - The PMI production index fell to 50.5% from 51.0%, while the new export orders index decreased to 47.1% from 47.7% [20][22].