抢进口退潮，美国经济的成色正在弱化——美国二季度GDP点评

Core Viewpoint - The economic transition from technical recession to unexpected growth in the first half of 2025 is primarily influenced by tariff-induced import rushes, with underlying demand growth showing signs of weakening [4][6]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Demand - In the first half of 2025, the U.S. economy experienced fluctuations due to tariff impacts, transitioning from an import rush to inventory depletion, resulting in significant GDP growth variations [6][12]. - The GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was +3% (expected +2.6%), with a year-on-year growth of +2% (expected +1.8%) [2][29]. - Internal demand growth, excluding inventory, slowed to a year-on-year rate of +2.3%, down from +2.7% in the second half of 2024, indicating a weakening trend [4][15]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending in the first half of 2025 showed strength, particularly in automobiles and clothing, likely due to preemptive purchases ahead of tariff implementations [7][17]. - The year-on-year growth rate for automobile and parts consumption was +6.6%, significantly higher than the 2024 average of -0.8% [7][17]. - Concerns arise that this preemptive consumption may lead to a slowdown in consumer spending in the latter half of 2025 [7][17]. Group 3: Business Investment Trends - Business investment showed a divergence from durable goods orders, with non-residential investment growing by +3.2% year-on-year, while durable goods orders surged by +11.2% [8][22]. - The strong growth in durable goods orders was primarily driven by transportation equipment, particularly aircraft, while other sectors remained subdued [8][26]. - Boeing's increased production capacity and foreign orders driven by trade negotiations are expected to sustain the structural strength in aircraft orders [8][26]. Group 4: GDP Data Analysis - The second quarter of 2025 saw a notable improvement in GDP, with internal demand slightly improving to a year-on-year growth of +1.7% [29][35]. - Consumer spending remained robust, with goods consumption showing a year-on-year increase of +3.5% [35]. - Government spending continued to show a mild decline, with a year-on-year growth of +2.3% in the first half of 2025 [37].