全球铜市“巨震”，押注“TACO”的人又赢了

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected exemption of refined copper products from tariffs by President Trump has disrupted market expectations, leading to significant losses for traders betting on rising U.S. copper prices, while those who anticipated Trump's policy changes benefited greatly [1][3][8] Group 1: Market Reaction - Following Trump's announcement on July 30, copper futures prices on the New York Commodity Exchange (Comex) plummeted by 22%, marking the largest single-day decline since at least 1988 [1][2] - The exemption of refined copper, including cathodes and anodes, from the 50% tariff led to a rapid disappearance of the price premium that Comex copper had over London Metal Exchange (LME) copper, which had previously exceeded 20% [6][7] Group 2: Trading Dynamics - The market upheaval resulted in substantial losses for many long positions established based on U.S. protectionist policy expectations, while traders betting on Trump's unpredictability saw remarkable returns [3][8] - Over 31,000 options contracts shifted from out-of-the-money to in-the-money status overnight, with a nominal value soaring to $3.54 billion [3][8] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The strategy that capitalized on the price difference between Comex and LME copper collapsed due to the tariff exemption, as Comex copper prices turned to a discount compared to LME prices [6][7] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that despite the market's reaction, the fundamental market conditions remain unchanged, and they do not foresee a large-scale diversion of copper exports from the U.S. [7]