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有问有答 | “收蛋”变“碎蛋”,为何债券市场波动变大?
中泰证券资管·2025-08-01 07:03

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the bond market is attributed to increased inflation expectations and a rising risk appetite among investors, leading to a decline in the attractiveness of bonds [4] Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market has experienced increased fluctuations due to frequent "anti-involution" policies and a notable rise in commodity prices, which have heightened inflation expectations [4] - The stock market's enthusiasm has led to a significant recovery in risk appetite, causing investors to favor riskier assets over bonds [4] - Despite the current volatility, the long-term outlook for the bond market remains positive, supported by a need for low market interest rates and a relatively loose liquidity environment [4] Group 2: Bond Types and Volatility - Bonds with longer durations tend to exhibit the highest volatility, followed by medium to long-term credit bonds, while short-duration credit bonds and money market products show the least volatility [5][6] - For investors seeking stability and lower volatility, short-term credit bond funds or money market products are recommended [6] Group 3: Bonds in a Bull Market - Even in a bull market, bonds retain their value due to the cash flow generated from interest payments, which can provide stable returns despite price fluctuations [7] - Bonds play a crucial role in asset allocation, serving as a stabilizing force in an investment portfolio, especially for conservative investors [7] - The presence of bonds in a diversified investment strategy is essential, as they continue to fulfill their function regardless of market conditions [7]