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鲍威尔未就9月降息给指引,强调关税和通胀的不确定性,称就业市场未走弱(附全文)
美股IPO·2025-07-31 04:47

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not provide guidance on a potential interest rate cut in September, stating it is too early to assert whether the Fed will lower the federal funds rate as the financial markets expect [1][4][10] - Current interest rates are deemed "moderately restrictive," with inflation slightly above the 2% target, and the labor market remains strong with low unemployment [10][14][29] - The Fed is prepared to adjust its policy stance based on upcoming economic data and the balance of risks, with significant data expected before the September meeting [11][30][46] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Activity - Inflation has significantly decreased from its mid-2022 peak but remains slightly above the 2% target, with the overall PCE price index rising by 2.5% over the past 12 months [6][14] - Service inflation has slowed significantly, while goods inflation is rising, influenced by tariffs that have begun to impact prices [6][14][19] - Economic activity has shown signs of slowing, primarily due to reduced consumer spending, with GDP growth for the first half of the year at approximately 1.2% compared to 2.5% the previous year [4][13][36] Group 3: Labor Market - The labor market remains balanced, with unemployment rates low and indicators similar to those from a year ago, despite a slowdown in job growth [5][40] - Wage growth is slowing but still outpaces inflation, indicating a stable labor market overall [5][14] - The Fed is closely monitoring the labor market for potential downtrends, as both labor demand and supply are decreasing [40][41] Group 4: Tariffs and Their Impact - The impact of tariffs on inflation is still being assessed, with the process of price transmission expected to be slower than previously anticipated [8][9][19] - There is a reasonable assumption that the inflationary effects of tariffs may be temporary, but there is also a risk that these effects could become more persistent [8][9] - The Fed is committed to using its tools to prevent temporary price increases from evolving into sustained inflation [9][20] Group 5: Future Outlook - The Fed will continue to evaluate all evidence and data to determine the appropriate policy stance, with a focus on balancing inflation and employment risks [7][30][46] - The upcoming months will provide critical data that could influence the Fed's decision on interest rates, with a focus on achieving the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability [28][30][46] - The Fed emphasizes the importance of timing in policy adjustments to avoid unnecessary harm to the labor market while addressing inflation concerns [20][30]