雪球·2025-08-01 08:25Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the performance and market capitalization trends of major lithium mining companies in China over the past few years, suggesting that the strong players are likely to remain dominant in the future [2]. Market Capitalization Trends - The article compares the market capitalization of several companies including Tianqi, Rongjie, Shengxin, Ganfeng, Yongxing, and Zhongmin from July 2020 to the present [3]. - Key market capitalization points are highlighted, with Zhongmin set as the baseline (A), showing that other companies have varying multiples of this baseline [9][12][16][19][23]. Production Capacity Changes - Tianqi's equity capacity increased from 70,000 tons to 95,000 tons, with future expectations around 100,000 tons [24]. - Rongjie expanded from 5,000 tons to 25,000 tons, with equity capacity projected to reach 10,000 to 20,000 tons [24]. - Shengxin's capacity grew from 40,000 tons to 137,000 tons, with equity capacity expected to reach 25,000 to 30,000 tons [25]. - Ganfeng's equity capacity rose from over 40,000 tons to 110,000 tons, with total capacity at 260,000 tons and future expectations of 150,000 tons in equity [26]. - Yongxing's capacity increased from 10,000 tons to 30,000 tons, with equity capacity projected to reach 50,000 tons [26]. - Zhongmin's capacity grew from 3,000 tons to 70,000 tons, with equity capacity expected to reach 100,000 tons [26]. Industry Outlook - The article emphasizes that the lithium mining sector is interconnected, and the focus should be on the future growth of equity production capacity, which is crucial for long-term value [26]. - It notes that many high-quality mines have already been acquired, making it challenging to significantly increase equity capacity [27].