【招银研究|海外宏观】“降息之争”舞台剧——美联储议息会议点评（2025年7月）

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25-4.50%, indicating limited room for future rate cuts due to the current economic conditions and political pressures [1][6]. Economic Summary - The U.S. economy is experiencing moderate slowdown, with a second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate of 3.0%. However, private sector momentum has significantly weakened, with private sector annualized growth dropping to 1.2%, the lowest in 2023 [4]. - Key economic challenges include a decline in construction investment (-10.3%) and residential investment (-4.6%), both sensitive to interest rates. High long-term rates are increasing costs for home purchases and real estate investments, leading to a sluggish housing market [4]. - Consumer spending growth in the second quarter was only 1.4%, which, while an improvement from the first quarter (0.5%), remains below the long-term trend of 2-3% [4]. Policy Summary - The Federal Reserve has maintained its current interest rate level, which is described as "moderately restrictive," suggesting limited future rate cuts. Chairman Powell has not provided clear guidance on when cuts might occur [6]. - Powell emphasized that the Fed will not be responsible for national fiscal issues and will focus on its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability [6][7]. Strategy Summary - Given the increasing demand for dollars and the ongoing "funding shortage," the strategy suggests buying long-term U.S. Treasuries when the 5-year yield is in the 4.05%-4.15% range and the 10-year yield is in the 4.5%-4.6% range [8]. - The recommendation is to adopt a neutral and cautious stance towards the dollar, correcting previous overly bearish sentiments [8].