国泰海通｜宏观：“五年规划”的前世今生——“十五五规划”系列研究之一

Core Viewpoint - The evolution of the five-year plan reflects a flexible and diverse set of goals focusing on innovation, livelihood, and safety, with an emphasis on optimizing industries and transitioning to green production capabilities [1][5]. Group 1: Planning Framework - The five-year plan follows a fixed cycle that includes seven steps: preliminary research, investigation and compilation, suggestions and implementation, drafting, review and approval, mid-term evaluation, and summary evaluation [2]. - The structure of the five-year plan can be divided into three main parts: overall goals, sector-specific discussions, and implementation mechanisms [3][4]. Group 2: Key Features of Recent Five-Year Plans - The main objectives of the five-year plans have become more flexible, with GDP growth targets shifting from fixed values to range targets. The proportion of targets reflecting economic growth has decreased from 33% in the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" to 20% in the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan," while social comprehensive goals have increased from 67% to 80% [5]. - Industry policy focuses on dynamic adjustments between manufacturing and service sectors, with an emphasis on enhancing manufacturing competitiveness and the rapid development of service industries driven by consumer demand and supportive policies [6]. - Major engineering projects are increasingly concentrated in the areas of livelihood, ecology, and infrastructure, with a notable shift in regional focus towards western provinces such as Sichuan, Tibet, and Xinjiang [7].