克而瑞地产研究·2025-08-01 09:25Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is expected to see an increase in the supply of high-quality residential land in the second half of 2025, with more transactions of premium land parcels anticipated across various regions [1][17]. Group 1: Land Market Trends - In July 2025, the total amount spent by 30 companies on land acquisition was 52.9 billion, a decrease of 16% month-on-month but an increase of over 50% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in land acquisition willingness among leading firms [16][29]. - The average premium rate for land in July reached 9.9%, the highest since the second quarter of 2025, driven by the sale of several high-quality residential plots in major cities like Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Suzhou [18]. - The total area of commercial and residential land sold nationwide as of July 25 was 41.94 million square meters, reflecting a seasonal decline of 13% in area and 18% in monetary value [18]. Group 2: New Land Value and Acquisition - The threshold for the top 100 companies in terms of new land value decreased by 10% year-on-year to 2.76 billion, while the total price threshold increased by 16% [20]. - The total new land value for the top 100 real estate companies reached 1.3295 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 17% and a 33% increase in total price, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the first half of the year [24]. - The top five companies accounted for a significant portion of new land value, with a threshold of 73.7 billion, indicating a clear disparity in land acquisition among leading firms [20]. Group 3: Market Concentration and Investment Behavior - The top 10 real estate companies accounted for 70% of the new land value, showing a slight decrease of 3 percentage points from the previous month but an increase of 8 percentage points compared to the end of 2024 [25]. - The land acquisition-to-sales ratio for the top 100 companies remained at 0.3, reflecting an improvement in investment willingness compared to previous years [25]. - Despite the overall cautious approach, there is a notable focus on core cities and high-value land, with many companies still hesitant to invest heavily in less desirable areas [29][31]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to see more high-quality residential land entering the market, with a continued focus on core urban areas, while lower-tier markets may remain subdued [31]. - Central state-owned enterprises are likely to dominate the land market, leveraging their financial strength and risk management capabilities to secure prime plots [31].