铜期货暴跌22%，押注“TACO”的人又赢了

Core Viewpoint - Trump's unexpected exemption on refined copper products has disrupted market expectations, leading to significant losses for traders who bet on rising copper prices in the U.S. and substantial gains for those who anticipated Trump's policy changes [1][6][10]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, copper futures prices on the New York Commodity Exchange plummeted by 22%, marking the largest single-day drop since at least 1988 [2][4]. - The market upheaval indicates that many long positions based on U.S. protectionist policies faced massive losses, while traders betting on Trump's unpredictability reaped significant rewards [4][12]. Options Market Impact - Data from the options market revealed that over 31,000 contracts shifted from out-of-the-money to in-the-money status overnight, with a nominal value soaring to $3.54 billion [5][14]. - Prior to the exemption announcement, only 675 put options were in-the-money, valued at $94.4 million, highlighting the dramatic shift in market sentiment [13]. Price Disparity - The strategy that capitalized on the price difference between Comex copper and London Metal Exchange (LME) copper collapsed as the exemption news eliminated the previously significant premium of over 20% for Comex copper [9][11]. - Comex copper prices fell sharply, transitioning to a discount compared to LME prices, which only saw a minor decline of 0.9% [9]. Lobbying and Future Implications - Various stakeholders, including U.S. copper producers and foreign governments, engaged in extensive lobbying that influenced the policy direction regarding refined copper import tariffs [16]. - Although the immediate exemption has been granted, the prospect of import tariffs on refined copper has not been entirely dismissed, with suggestions for a phased implementation starting in 2027 [16].