JCF(SZ:000420) 光大证券研究·2025-08-02 00:03Group 1: Viscose Filament Yarn Segment - The company is gradually increasing its market share in the viscose filament yarn sector, with global production capacity estimated at 250,000 to 280,000 tons per year, and China's capacity stable at around 210,000 to 240,000 tons per year [4] - As of the end of 2024, the company has a production capacity of 90,000 tons per year for viscose filament yarn, with a diverse range of differentiated products, capturing over 45% of the high-end market [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.791 billion yuan in the viscose filament yarn segment in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4%, while the gross margin for viscose filament and short yarn was 20.44%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points year-on-year [4] Group 2: Carbon Fiber Segment - The carbon fiber industry is experiencing improved market conditions, with the company operating a 12,000 tons per year carbon fiber composite production line, achieving a capacity utilization rate of 44.59% in 2024 [5] - The company reported a revenue of 320 million yuan from its carbon fiber segment in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%, with a gross margin of -26.74%, an increase of 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The average price of carbon fiber in China has shown signs of stabilization, with a reported price of 83.75 yuan/kg as of July 31, 2025, a year-on-year decline of 8.2% [5] Group 3: Industry Capacity and Trends - The carbon fiber industry is currently facing overcapacity, with a total production capacity of 159,500 tons in China, and an expected addition of approximately 465,300 tons from 2025 to 2028 [6] - The majority of production enterprises are currently operating at a loss, which may delay the actual release of planned capacities [7] - The central government's strong stance on "anti-involution" is expected to help reduce supply and increase industry concentration, thereby improving the overall market conditions for the carbon fiber industry [7]