热点思考 | 反内卷：为何需关注地方政府？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The current "anti-involution" differs from previous instances by focusing more on regulating local government behavior, emphasizing the need for a unified government action standard [2][11][90] - The shift from "Five Unifications and One Abolition" to "Five Unifications and One Opening" highlights the importance of local government behavior regulation and external openness [11][12][90] - The current round of "involution" is driven by local governments' deep involvement, characterized by creating policy gaps, blindly launching projects, and setting market barriers [2][16][90] Group 2 - Local governments are facing pressure to find growth drivers due to the downturn in the real estate cycle, with national commodity housing sales area down 39.7% and real estate investment down 27.3% from 2021 to 2024 [4][29][92] - The reliance on land finance has decreased, leading local governments to seek growth in high-tax industries, with manufacturing and wholesale retail accounting for 32% and 14% of total tax revenue in 2021 [4][37][92] - The principle of "production-based taxation" in the VAT system encourages local governments to promote manufacturing clusters [42][92] Group 3 - The average investment growth rate in manufacturing exceeded 10% in 16 provinces from 2022 to 2023, with the top five provinces averaging over 20% [52][53][92] - There is a significant overlap in industrial planning among local governments, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals, new materials, artificial intelligence, and new energy, leading to repeated construction and overcapacity [57][94] - Local governments are competing through tax incentives and subsidies, resulting in significant differences in manufacturing tax burdens across provinces, with a national average of 17.4% in 2023 [70][94] Group 4 - The central government is likely to implement targeted reforms to address local government "involution," including regulating investment attraction behaviors and promoting a healthy investment environment [79][94] - Short-term measures may include cleaning up illegal policy incentives, while long-term strategies could involve changing government functions and promoting efficient resource allocation nationwide [79][94]