中金研究 | 本周精选：宏观、策略、全球研究

Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The Politburo meeting on July 30 emphasized the good performance of major economic indicators and the need to maintain policy continuity and stability [4] - Fiscal policy in the third quarter may focus on leveraging existing policies, with a possibility of increased fiscal measures in the fourth quarter [4] - Monetary policy may prioritize reform measures and structural monetary policy tools rather than lowering policy interest rates [4] Group 2: Infrastructure Investment Opportunities - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project is expected to boost demand in various sectors, including basic chemicals, construction materials, and machinery [7] - The project is anticipated to enhance energy efficiency and improve fiscal revenue and employment in Tibet, potentially stimulating infrastructure investment and GDP growth [7] - Companies directly related to the project may experience short-term catalysts, but long-term focus should be on project progress and its economic impact [7] Group 3: Hong Kong IPO Market Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market has been active in 2025, outperforming major global markets, particularly the A-share market [9] - Hong Kong has become the largest IPO financing market globally in 2025, with significant inflows of southbound capital and many companies, including A-share firms, listing there [9] - Notable post-IPO performance has been observed, with some stocks trading significantly higher in Hong Kong compared to their A-share counterparts, igniting investor interest in IPO investments [9] Group 4: Vietnam Economic Performance - Vietnam's GDP grew by 8.0% year-on-year in Q2 2025, marking the highest growth rate for a second quarter in 2023, and 7.5% for the first half of 2025 [11] - The industrial and service sectors showed accelerated growth, with industrial GDP increasing by 8.3% and service GDP by 8.1% [11] - The Vietnamese government has raised its GDP growth target for 2025 from 8.0% to a range of 8.3% to 8.5%, reflecting the country's economic resilience [11] Group 5: U.S. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, aligning with market expectations, while some officials expressed concerns about inflation risks from tariffs [15] - The Fed's commitment to independence suggests that interest rate cuts may be delayed, especially if tariff pressures continue [15] - The decision-making process involves a committee, indicating that changes in leadership would not necessarily alter the monetary policy direction [15]